Why is it so difficult to get numbers of vegans in the world?

[Jebus]

I have a feeling the movement is growing. It is getting easier to find vegan restaurants when I travel, and there seems to be more vegan celebrities than before. Given the importance (economical, sociological etc) why have there been so few surveys on the growth of veganism? At the moment, we can only guess how many vegans there are and how quickly veganism is growing.

A couple of side questions:

By your estimation, what year will the world become half vegan/half non vegan (Richard Branson recently predicted that the world will be all vegan in 30 years)?

Is there any chance that the growth of veganism will stagnate or be reversed?

[Jamie in Chile]

By your estimation, what year will the world become half vegan/half non vegan?
I think 40 - 150 years. So most likely around the end of this century.
I assume you mean that 50% of people will be vegan (which will take longer) rather than 50% of meals will be vegan, or animal product consumption will have been reduced by 50% (both of which would happen sooner).
Keep in mind that any developing, poor country is likely to be some decades behind on moral trends as they focus on survival first. Also, the whole of the region from the sahara through to the middle East and some surrounding areas is dependent on animal agriculture, that will also take longer.
So to reach the point you suggest of half vegan for the whole world, that might happen when say Europe reaches about 70-75% vegan.

Is there any chance that the growth of veganism will stagnate or be reversed?
Yes. If there is any massive turbulence in society, like a major global war or natural disaster, some nuclear terrorism, or a dictatorship taking over North America or Europe, then people would have to refocus on other issues like political freedoms or related issues, or even survival, which would take away focus from veganism and cause either stagnation or reversal.
Apart from this, I can't see how anything else could cause a long term reversal except strong evidence that vegan diets are less healthy, which seems very unlikely.

[carnap]

I have a feeling the movement is growing. It is getting easier to find vegan restaurants when I travel, and there seems to be more vegan celebrities than before. Given the importance (economical, sociological etc) why have there been so few surveys on the growth of veganism? At the moment, we can only guess how many vegans there are and how quickly veganism is growing.

The obvious answer is that few people seem to be interested in accurate data. The vegan community is large enough with enough resources to conduct good research on the number of vegans, why people are becoming vegan, why people don't want to become vegan, why people stop being vegan, etc. Though faunalytics.org has conducted some studies.

By your estimation, what year will the world become half vegan/half non vegan (Richard Branson recently predicted that the world will be all vegan in 30 years)?

Never....people will likely shift to diets with less meat but won't become '"vegan" by any sort of majority.

Is there any chance that the growth of veganism will stagnate or be reversed?

Yes...and I'd suggest its already stagnating. For example in the US per person meat consumption has increased the last 2~3 years and is projected to reach on all time high in 2018. Now its possible that the number of vegans is increasing...but that would mean other groups are eating even more meat.

[bigbossomni]

simple veganism doesn't work for most people. 84% return to eating meat. Veganism has a 16% success rate. but of course jebus will write this off and insult me

[Jebus]

Veganism has a 16% success rate. but of course jebus will write this off and insult me

Please cite a source for this number.

[bigbossomni]

google search vegans returning to meat but even when you see the countless studies showing those numbers to be correct you will still write it off

[Jebus]

simple veganism doesn't work for most people. 84% return to eating meat. Veganism has a 16% success rate. but of course jebus will write this off and insult me

I googled this number and learned that there was a study done on Americans in which 84% of those who identified as ex vegetarians had gone back to eating meat. You wrote that veganism has a 16% success rate.

I don't need to insult you. Your comments are self insulting.

[carnap]

He got the figure a bit wrong by conflating vegetarian and vegan, the figure for vegans is 70%:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/animals-and-us/201412/84-vegetarians-and-vegans-return-meat-why

So the success rate is 30% which is still low. But he is right, vegans "write off" the low success rate.

[Jebus]

he is right, vegans "write off" the low success rate.

What do you mean by vegans? All vegans? Some vegans? A majority of vegans? How would you even know?

I am a vegan and I can't write off the success rate as I have no idea what the number is. That 30% number tells me absolutely nothing. How long had these people been vegan? Was it just a trial or were they fully committed?

The problem with self-identification studies is that people may not be fully honest. Perhaps someone tried a plant-based diet for three days and now identifies himself as a former vegan. It is a popular label as some people think it suggests that one has gone full circle and is one step ahead of current vegans.

[carnap]

What do you mean by vegans? All vegans? Some vegans? A majority of vegans? How would you even know?

By that I mean its a common theme with vegans.

I am a vegan and I can't write off the success rate as I have no idea what the number is. That 30% number tells me absolutely nothing. How long had these people been vegan? Was it just a trial or were they fully committed?

So why don't you look at the study? It will answer your questions. Though I'm not sure how you tell if someone is "fully committed" that seems to me to lead to excuse the data by creating a no true scotsman fallacy.

The failure rate in the study was highest within the few months but people continued to drop out even after years. The study also looked at the reasons why people returned to eating meat and the most common reason was feeling poorly.

And "vegan" isn't a popular label and, in fact, the general public doesn't have a high opinion of "vegans":

http://onestepmatters.com/UofAZMarketingResearch.pdf