Is meat consumption up?

[brimstoneSalad]

Yes, I would agree but I haven't jumped to any conclusion. I've said that the data *suggests* demand may be increasing.

It doesn't rule out the possibility. It doesn't rule out the possibility that it's decreasing either given all of the variables of inflation and international trade.

I don't think it's fair to say it suggests anything in particular before any known confounding variables have been examined.

Meat as a whole is somewhat inelastic, but particular cuts/types of meat are more elastic. That is when meat costs go up people often will respond by buying cheaper meats rather than cutting down meat as a whole.

Sure, but this isn't broken down by cuts, and it could be factors affecting meat prices in general. When we look at different cuts, international trade also has a huge effect. Foreign demand for less desirable cuts may be competing enough to change that equation and make demand for prime cuts more inelastic than it has traditionally been.

Some of the increase in meat consumption is clearly due to people just eating more but the recent increase in meat consumption (the last 3~5 years) has occurred when obesity rates have stabilized a bit. But this is one of the issues that will become more clear as time goes by.

Obesity rates have slowed their climb a bit, which might be good news.
The last 3-5 years probably have more to do with recovery from the recession, people buying and wasting more, and very importantly the increasing exports to China and other countries.

I see no reason to believe people are wasting more meat than they use to, in fact, research on food waste shows that meat is one of the foods least likely to be wasted.

Where do you get that?
Can you share a link?

But even if we assumed that is true, if people are buying more meat and simply throwing it away that would to me demonstrate even less regard (in terms of animal ethics) than if they were buying it to eat it!

I don't think it indicates anything other than people having more disposable income, because they don't think of it like that.
I imagine the waste is mainly concentrated with the people who don't have much regard for ethics anyway.

I think the increases due to obesity (which clearly explain some of the increase...especially over the last 3~4 decades) is the more serious issue here.

I think they're both very serious issues, but waste may be bigger in environmental terms.

Waste accounts for about a third of food production, and the EPA says it generates about 20% of U.S. methane output from decomposition in landfills.
https://www.epa.gov/sustainable-management-food/united-states-2030-food-loss-and-waste-reduction-goal

I don't think 1/3rd of the population eats more than twice as much food as everybody else, and some of that caloric increase is coming from sugar, which is pretty environmentally efficient (some due to increased portion size and increased meat consumption, but not all of it).

I'm skeptical that obesity is reaching a plateau; reductions we're seeing right now may be fruits of trends in childhood obesity in the younger generation as they become adults, but we could very easily see a sharp uptick again thanks to the Trump administration's hard work at promoting childhood obesity by undoing all of the measures the Obama administration put into place.

There are pretty much exceptions to everything in economics, so its a question of what the data is suggesting and tracking the data to confirm or deny hypotheses.

I just don't think this data tells us anything on its own, because there are too many confounding variables that haven't been controlled for.

Just like data on female income being 77% of a man's on average doesn't tell us anything about a true wage gap; it says it might be there, but it also doesn't say that the gap isn't in the other direction (in itself, men could be making less per hour and we'd never know), because we also know there are confounding variables like education interest, working hours, etc. The actual wage gap turned out to be much smaller when adjusted properly, around 5%, and plausibly attributable to gender differences like just asking for a raise and other unknown variables.

My point is that there are obvious confounding variables here, so until those are taken into account we really shouldn't speculate too seriously on this stuff. I don't even think we have the right data to take them into account. I would be very interested in seeing some rigorous studies on the issue, though.

I certainly want to know what aspect of the reduction message is working, if any, and how to improve it.

[carnap]

It doesn't rule out the possibility. It doesn't rule out the possibility that it's decreasing either given all of the variables of inflation and international trade.

Nothing can "rule out the possibility", science is never certain and that is especially true of economics. All I have claimed here is that the recent data suggests an increase in demand and you'll have to track the data going forward to get a better idea. Increasing consumption/production + increasing prices is a good indicator of increased demand.

Obesity rates have slowed their climb a bit, which might be good news.
The last 3-5 years probably have more to do with recovery from the recession, people buying and wasting more, and very importantly the increasing exports to China and other countries.

The data I cited here was for domestic consumption, exports have increased as well so total production is up even more if you include exports.

Where do you get that?
Can you share a link?

For example:

https://io9.gizmodo.com/these-charts-show-which-foods-are-most-likely-to-be-was-1684688070

I don't think it indicates anything other than people having more disposable income, because they don't think of it like that.
I imagine the waste is mainly concentrated with the people who don't have much regard for ethics anyway.

Waste exists in the entire supply-chain, its not just from consumers. But the point is that its the act of buying the meat that matters here, if they are wasting it more that would if anything show less regard not greater regard for the underlying issues. People are more inclined to waste what they don't value.

I think they're both very serious issues, but waste may be bigger in environmental terms.

I was referring to their impact on increasing demand, we have no reason to believe that people are wasting more food now than 5 years ago but we do have reasons to believe people may be eating a bit more due to increased rates of obesity.

If anything I suspect people are wasting less because food-waste has become a concept of concern recently, where as few people were talking about it 5~10 years ago. But I haven't seen any data that tracks it.

[brimstoneSalad]

More information.
Looks like prices are going to start falling now, and some production is being scaled back, due to Trump's trade war:

2.5 Billion Pounds of Meat Piles Up in U.S. as Production Grows, Exports Slow
https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-piles ... 1532268000

WSJ cites a recovering economy as a cause for increased U.S. domestic demand, but a large part of production was for export and it's causing problems now.

In terms of U.S. demand, a combination of factors are likely at play: a rebounding demand (and possibly increased waste from people who could not afford to waste food before) with a recovering economy as WSJ mentioned, plus rising obesity (as was discussed earlier in the thread), plus pet food (which I don't think was mentioned before).

Pet food is an interesting factor; I didn't realize how very large it was.

http://www.cell.ag/sustainable-future-of-pet-food/

Pet food is one of the largest consumers of meat in the world. America’s dogs and cats consume about 25% of all meat sold in the country. A recent study investigating the environmental impact of pet food found that American pets consume enough meat that they alone would be the fifth most meat-consuming nation in the world.

Given the magnitude of this, and the rise of the grain-free pet food fads (which also likely correlates with a rebounding economy since when times are tough most people aren't as likely to buy their pets premium food), this is a very plausible explanation for increased domestic consumption which says nothing about the success/failure of meat reduction messages for humans (I've experienced vegetarians who feed their animals meat heavy diets and are very hostile to the idea of not doing so).

If true, a focus on a plant based message for pets and debunking the anti-grain fad may be very effective ways to cut into demand in the U.S..

[brimstoneSalad]

But the point is that its the act of buying the meat that matters here, if they are wasting it more that would if anything show less regard not greater regard for the underlying issues. People are more inclined to waste what they don't value.

I don't think people think about it that carefully.
Look how many vegetarians pick meat off their food and throw it out, or buy chicken ramen and throw away the packet (Vegan Cheetah).

Even most supposedly ethical vegetarians and vegans aren't necessarily thinking carefully in a supply and demand way.

And the notion of waste wouldn't apply at all to the health message, which is a large part of the reduction messaging (I agree that's probably bad practive if it's resulting in this).

However, I suspect the majority of waste increase is coming from people of lower income who were avoiding waste for financial reasons during the recession by accident because they just didn't have money to buy as much food so they were hungry enough to eat all leftovers or jut bought less and ate it all, and who have just returned to normal behavior. Waste is rarely intentional in the way that buying and eating are, it's more absent minded and so even less connected to moral consideration. The most connected (as evidenced by vegetarians throwing out the meat component of meals) is the eating part.

A focus on education on purchasing might be beneficial, but given how hard it is to teach people economics I'm not sure if that's practical.

That said, the pet food angle is probably much more substantial if those numbers are true. ^

[Lay Vegan]

Pet food is an interesting factor; I didn't realize how very large it was.

http://www.cell.ag/sustainable-future-of-pet-food/

Pet food is one of the largest consumers of meat in the world. America’s dogs and cats consume about 25% of all meat sold in the country. A recent study investigating the environmental impact of pet food found that American pets consume enough meat that they alone would be the fifth most meat-consuming nation in the world.

Given the magnitude of this, and the rise of the grain-free pet food fads (which also likely correlates with a rebounding economy since when times are tough most people aren't as likely to buy their pets premium food), this is a very plausible explanation for increased domestic consumption which says nothing about the success/failure of meat reduction messages for humans (I've experienced vegetarians who feed their animals meat heavy diets and are very hostile to the idea of not doing so).

Interesting! I wouldn’t have thought that pet food consumption is a major factor driving demand in meat products.

I recently drafted a “Vegan Companion Animals” stub on the wiki. I’ll work this in. wiki/index.php/Vegan_Companion_Animals Activists can and should do more to cut through the bullshit regarding feeding pets nutritionally complete vegan diets. This anti-vegan pet sentiment is hurting more animals.

If true, a focus on a plant based message for pets and debunking the anti-grain fad may be very effective ways to cut into demand in the U.S..

What’s behind this anti-grain hysteria anyway? Is it evidence based? The FDA released a report just over a week ago warning pet owners of the potential dangers of feeding dogs grain-free diets. https://www.fda.gov/AnimalVeterinary/Ne ... 613305.htm

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is alerting pet owners and veterinary professionals about reports of canine dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) in dogs eating certain pet foods containing peas, lentils, other legume seeds, or potatoes as main ingredients...Early reports from the veterinary cardiology community indicate that the dogs consistently ate these foods as their primary source of nutrition for time periods ranging from months to years. High levels of legumes or potatoes appear to be more common in diets labeled as “grain-free,” but it is not yet known how these ingredients are linked to cases of DCM.

[brimstoneSalad]

I recently drafted a “Vegan Companion Animals” stub on the wiki. I’ll work this in.

Awesome, thanks!

What’s behind this anti-grain hysteria anyway? Is it evidence based? The FDA released a report just over a week ago warning pet owners of the potential dangers of feeding dogs grain-free diets. https://www.fda.gov/AnimalVeterinary/Ne ... 613305.htm

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is alerting pet owners and veterinary professionals about reports of canine dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) in dogs eating certain pet foods containing peas, lentils, other legume seeds, or potatoes as main ingredients...Early reports from the veterinary cardiology community indicate that the dogs consistently ate these foods as their primary source of nutrition for time periods ranging from months to years. High levels of legumes or potatoes appear to be more common in diets labeled as “grain-free,” but it is not yet known how these ingredients are linked to cases of DCM.

Looks like it could be a coincidence, but if not I'd wonder if it's due to the lower carbohydrate content or poor fortification because these are often smaller companies that might have poorer quality control.

[carnap]

In terms of U.S. demand, a combination of factors are likely at play: a rebounding demand (and possibly increased waste from people who could not afford to waste food before) with a recovering economy as WSJ mentioned, plus rising obesity (as was discussed earlier in the thread), plus pet food (which I don't think was mentioned before).

Pet food would impact production figures but not the USDA calculation for per capita consumption.

You seem to ignore a rather obvious factor, namely, people's attitudes towards meat have changed due to the popularity of the paleo and keto diets. These diets have not only created a fraction of hyper consumers for meat but they've also changed attitudes towards meat for the general public. Generally speaking, people today see carbs as bad and whole meats as healthy.

[brimstoneSalad]

Pet food would impact production figures but not the USDA calculation for per capita consumption.

It would explain the stable price relative to the production increase (until now, anyway).

I think we already discussed the per capita consumption estimates. What is that calculation based on?

You seem to ignore a rather obvious factor, namely, people's attitudes towards meat have changed due to the popularity of the paleo and keto diets.

Are there any surveys of those diets' popularity?
Those seem like pretty fringe fads, while I see some paleo stuff in grocery stores it's a lot less than vegan stuff.
And these have likely just replaced Atkins in popularity. There have always been these hyper-meat diets.

These diets have not only created a fraction of hyper consumers for meat but they've also changed attitudes towards meat for the general public. Generally speaking, people today see carbs as bad and whole meats as healthy.

There is an anti-sugar and anti-grain hysteria, but I don't see that having much effect in grocery stores outside the pet food aisles.
Is there evidence of a warming attitude toward meat in terms of surveys?

[carnap]

Are there any surveys of those diets' popularity?
Those seem like pretty fringe fads, while I see some paleo stuff in grocery stores it's a lot less than vegan stuff.
And these have likely just replaced Atkins in popularity. There have always been these hyper-meat diets.

I'm not aware of any survey of the general population but as a proxy I like to look at the top diet books on Amazon and similar rankings, these rankings tell you a good deal about the middle-class population. Right now the vast majority of diet books are some variant of keto or paleo diets.

There is an anti-sugar and anti-grain hysteria, but I don't see that having much effect in grocery stores outside the pet food aisles.
Is there evidence of a warming attitude toward meat in terms of surveys?

I'm not sure what you'd expect to see, unless there was a dramatic shift the changes would primarily be in sales volume and that is difficult to determine by just looking at grocery store shelves. But I do think there are some noticeably shifts. For example in the past cereal vars were almost all sugary and carb rich now there is a large section for "protein bars". Manufactures have started to fortify some foods with extra protein.

But there are two somewhat separate issues here, namely, how people are trying to eat ("less carbs, more protein" ) and how they actually end up eating.