Soft Sciences Vs. Hard Sciences

[teo123]

you just never cared to research or never payed attention to every aspect of your city.

So, people who live in Osijek aren't qualified to have an opinion whether there is a jail in Osijek?

Satellite footage and pictures of thousands of specialised prison architecture

Well, I don't recognize most of the pictures there, but for the last picture, I am nearly certain it's not of a part of a jail, I recognize it as the eastern part of Tvrđa (the remaining of the medieval Osijek) when looked from Donji Grad (where the remaining of the ancient town Mursa is). You see it like that when going from the campus towards the Franjo Tuđman Bridge.

Occam’s razor, you’d have to believe everyone you met was a really skilled payed actor for it all to be a complex deception, which would be a really dumb idea for the complex explanations needed to even hypothesise why would someone want to do that, etc.

While the a-priori probability of a massive conspiracy existing to make people believe jails exist is indeed very low, why would the a-priori probability of jails existing be any higher? It's also very much against what we normally see how society works.

[brimstoneSalad]

@teo123 recognizing that climate change is even a problem is not complicated.
People think we need prisons for similar reasons, believing criminals are just evil and have made the choice to be bad vs. environmental circumstance or lack of education. They don't understand the causes of most crime. Also, they believe in revenge instead of rehabilitation, old school biblical stuff.
Read slatestarcodex for better info on antidepressants etc. psychiatry has come a long way in the past 100 years. Yes, they do work and I think I have already explained that to you.

[NonZeroSum]

you just never cared to research or never payed attention to every aspect of your city.

So, people who live in Osijek aren't qualified to have an opinion whether there is a jail in Osijek?

You’re a very unreliable witness as you would have seen airplanes in the sky before, but somehow convinced yourself that you hadn’t seen them in order to not believe they exist, you live next to a fucking airport and live under a dense flight path. But regardless you’re not even sure you’ve been past the courthouse next-door.

Start a gofundme page and promise to video yourself talking to a camera walking into the prison as the air escapes your self confidence, it would be a valuable psychological case study into how conspiracy theorists minds work. You could raise a fair bit of money for charity.

People loved talking about the desire for doomsday sillyness attached to Christian culture when that televangelist in America had a bunch fooled with a time prediction.

Satellite footage and pictures of thousands of specialised prison architecture

Well, I don't recognize most of the pictures there, but for the last picture, I am nearly certain it's not of a part of a jail, I recognize it as the eastern part of Tvrđa (the remaining of the medieval Osijek) when looked from Donji Grad (where the remaining of the ancient town Mursa is). You see it like that when going from the campus towards the Franjo Tuđman Bridge.

The buildings are the exact same proportions to the zoomed out photo of courthouse and prison. The chimney stack, colours, proportions are all the same across the satellite birdseye view, to zoomed out diagonal down & horizontal street view.

Occam’s razor, you’d have to believe everyone you met was a really skilled payed actor for it all to be a complex deception, which would be a really dumb idea for the complex explanations needed to even hypothesise why would someone want to do that, etc.

While the a-priori probability of a massive conspiracy existing to make people believe jails exist is indeed very low, why would the a-priori probability of jails existing be any higher? It's also very much against what we normally see how society works.

It is not.

[NonZeroSum]

you just never cared to research or never payed attention to every aspect of your city.

So, people who live in Osijek aren't qualified to have an opinion whether there is a jail in Osijek?

You’re a very unreliable witness as you would have seen airplanes in the sky before, but somehow convinced yourself that you hadn’t seen them in order to not believe they exist, you live next to a fucking airport and live under a dense flight path. But regardless you’re not even sure you’ve been past the courthouse next-door.

Start a gofundme page and promise to video yourself talking to a camera walking into the prison as the air escapes your self confidence, it would be a valuable psychological case study into how conspiracy theorists minds work. You could raise a fair bit of money for charity.

People loved talking about the desire for doomsday sillyness attached to Christian culture when that televangelist in America had a bunch fooled with a time prediction.

Satellite footage and pictures of thousands of specialised prison architecture

Well, I don't recognize most of the pictures there, but for the last picture, I am nearly certain it's not of a part of a jail, I recognize it as the eastern part of Tvrđa (the remaining of the medieval Osijek) when looked from Donji Grad (where the remaining of the ancient town Mursa is). You see it like that when going from the campus towards the Franjo Tuđman Bridge.

The buildings are the exact same proportions to the zoomed out photo of courthouse and prison. The chimney stack, colours, proportions are all the same across the satellite birdseye view, to zoomed out diagonal down & horizontal street view.

Here it is again on google street view:

Occam’s razor, you’d have to believe everyone you met was a really skilled payed actor for it all to be a complex deception, which would be a really dumb idea for the complex explanations needed to even hypothesise why would someone want to do that, etc.

While the a-priori probability of a massive conspiracy existing to make people believe jails exist is indeed very low, why would the a-priori probability of jails existing be any higher? It's also very much against what we normally see how society works.

It is not.

[teo123]

recognizing that climate change is even a problem is not complicated.

I think it is when you consider what a mess climate science is. I mean, early climate models predicted there is a threshold above which a further increase of CO2 in the atmosphere would cause global cooling, rather than global warming, by leading to glaciers melting and slightly decreasing the salinity of the oceans and thereby making the sea currents irreversibly stop and prevent hot air from spreading, and that we are above that threshold. Empirical data showed otherwise. Solution? Use simpler climate models which don't account for the sea currents being sensitive to the salinity of the ocean. Well, that's not how science is supposed to work.
And the vast majority of climate models used today predict that the infrared radiation from Earth will get weaker as the atmosphere gets warmer, due to the greenhouse effect. Yet, the data from satellites clearly shows it has slightly increased. Solution? Trust the climate models about temperature, but not about infrared radiation. Well, that's not how science is supposed to work.
So, if climate science demonstrably doesn't follow the methods of science, why should we trust it? We can know for certain the globe is warming (otherwise all the data would have to be faked for no obvious reason) and suppose with reasonable certainty we are partly responsible for that, but I see no reason to go further.
And assuming climate science somehow got it right, I don't see how it follows we should do something about global warming. This switch from grass-fed cows to grain-fed cows was partly motivated by this fear that the methane released by grass-fed cows will destroy the climate. But the exact same policies that make cows emit less methane usually make us more vulnerable to super-bacteria. Is there any reason to think global warming is worse than super-bacteria? And similarly goes for other proposed solutions to global warming.

They don't understand the causes of most crime.

But how can they not understand the causes of most crime, yet know how to become a city mayor or a president of a country? Understanding what causes most crime is way simpler than that.

psychiatry has come a long way in the past 100 years

In other words, it has a terrible track record. All sciences have been wrong before, but hardly any field has such a horrible track record as psychiatry does. Just 50 years ago, it was incredibly confident that treatments that hurt the patients a lot actually help them. OK, maybe it advanced from being worse than useless to being useless. Now it's incredibly confident that anti-depressants, for which most studies show they have no effect whatsoever, some studies show a small positive effect, and some studies even showing a negative effect (suicide), are miraculous cures.

You’re a very unreliable witness

@brimstoneSalad, do you agree with NonZeroSum on this? You said the reason I am not qualified to talk about whether the Vukovar Massacre occurred is that I didn't witness what happened as an adult. Now I am an adult living in Osijek, so do you think I am qualified to talk about whether there is a jail in Osijek?

Start a gofundme page and promise to video yourself talking to a camera walking into the prison as the air escapes your self confidence

And, what do you think, how can I be happy knowing jails are real?

The chimney stack

Well, the K Topu restaurant (serving a lot of vegan food) in north-eastern Tvrđa also has such a big chimney on its northern side (one that faces the Drava river).

It is not.

What does the supposed history of torture have to do with the a-priori probability that jails exist?

[NonZeroSum]

Start a gofundme page and promise to video yourself talking to a camera walking into the prison as the air escapes your self confidence

And, what do you think, how can I be happy knowing jails are real?

What does that have to do with anything? Should I not believe the nazis killed 6 million Jews because the idea upsets me? But yes you have the capabilities to be happy pursuing many goals, you don’t need to obsessively contemplate what humans do to each other and animals around the world.

The chimney stack

Well, the K Topu restaurant (serving a lot of vegan food) in north-eastern Tvrđa also has such a big chimney on its northern side (one that faces the Drava river).

Yeah they look exactly alike actually




But again even if you found a perfect replica, it wouldn’t disprove that all those traits of the building in the street view matches up with diagonal down picture and satellite. The simple test is just to walk down there yourself to prove to me the pictures are faked.

It is not.

What does the supposed history of torture have to do with the a-priori probability that jails exist?

Prisons fit into a category of retributive justice like torture as punishment, you just had to watch the documentary to the end to see how they covered the evolution of punishment throughout history including jails. How jail in many countries was a concession to peasants who were beginning to revolt at having family and friends killed for the smallest of thefts to survive. Also it’s not a-priori, there’s a wealth of observable evidence.

This really is the dumbest conspiracy you’ve latched onto yet, there are rare conspiracies like Watergate, where from limited evidence people are right to infer the probability of a conspiracy, until it’s then proven. Why do you see literally no one on the internet talking about the conspiracy that evidence of jails is fabricated?

There’s “freemen of the land” conspiracy theorists who would really like that they not have to be dragged through the court system, so they believe they can just use a dialogue script going back to ancient common law that the government is beholden to uphold so protects them from modern law.

None of that has been proven either, but you can see how they try to use evidence of ancient laws to prove a conspiracy, you don’t even have that, just a belief in the level headed reasonableness of everyone in power throughout history. Or was there some cut off point only you are privy to where people just stopped wanting perpetrators punished for wrongs committed against them?

[brimstoneSalad]

@teo123 consensus in climate science isn't complicated.
What to DO about it is another question, I specifically referred to whether it was even happening.

They don't understand the causes of most crime.

But how can they not understand the causes of most crime, yet know how to become a city mayor or a president of a country? Understanding what causes most crime is way simpler than that.

1. That's like saying lottery winners understand how to win the lottery. Idiot.

Like people playing the lottery, there are a large number of people vying for political office, a few of them more or less randomly go viral or find political appeal and support and make it into office. It doesn't mean they knew how to do it.

2. To the small extent it's not random, there are actually experts in getting people elected, they're called campaign managers. Politicians hire them to help get them elected. Doesn't mean the politicians understood anything about it.

3. Even if a campaign manager (an actually intelligent and educated person) believes prisons were important that would be irrelevant because it's an entirely different skill set. Getting people elected means understanding polling and public opinion and advertisement, not any other science or actual sound social policy.

STOP wasting my time with this.

OK, maybe it advanced from being worse than useless to being useless. Now it's incredibly confident that anti-depressants, for which most studies show they have no effect whatsoever, some studies show a small positive effect, and some studies even showing a negative effect (suicide), are miraculous cures.

It's not useless, and I have already discussed this and referred you to a source that discusses it more. Stop with your conspiracy theory bullshit, you sound like a Scientologist.

You’re a very unreliable witness

@brimstoneSalad, do you agree with NonZeroSum on this?

Yes.

You said the reason I am not qualified to talk about whether the Vukovar Massacre occurred is that I didn't witness what happened as an adult. Now I am an adult living in Osijek, so do you think I am qualified to talk about whether there is a jail in Osijek?

Did I say that was the only reason? You're also generally incompetent as an objective observer.
The Vulkovar massacre would also be a little harder to not be somewhat aware of. Prisons are by design unobtrusive. Like sewers, people don't want to SEE prisons. People aren't trying to HIDE the prisons exactly, there are posted signs, but they also don't really want to make it look like some giant fortress with hundred foot tall barbed wire fences and moats (nor would that be economical). City planners don't want something offensively ugly, they want something that blends in with the surroundings.

Start a gofundme page and promise to video yourself talking to a camera walking into the prison as the air escapes your self confidence

And, what do you think, how can I be happy knowing jails are real?

Do you want to believe what is true, and then learn to be happy in reality by finding purpose in your life and trying to make the world better, or do you just want to believe whatever you think will make you ignorantly happy without inspiring you to do anything?

If the latter, shut up and stop arguing about it because you're wrong and will only be further demonstrated to be.
If the former, again shut up and stop complaining that this knowledge won't make you happy.

[teo123]

Should I not believe the nazis killed 6 million Jews because the idea upsets me?

Well, at least Holocaust was long ago and far away. Prisons are supposedly here and now.

Yeah they look exactly alike actually

This the southern side of the K Topu coffee bar. North of the K Topu coffee bar is the K Topu restaurant.
I can't find a photo of what it looks like when looked from the remaining of Mursa, here is what it looks like from the river. When looked from the remaining of Mursa (the western part of Donji Grad), it looks very similar or the same as the photo you linked to.

The simple test is just to walk down there yourself to prove to me the pictures are faked.

I don't have time for such things, the university is killing me.

Why do you see literally no one on the internet talking about the conspiracy that evidence of jails is fabricated?

Well, that proves I am a free thinker, doesn't it? The search engines probably remove such content, just like they remove the Holocaust denial and anti-waxxer content.

consensus in climate science isn't complicated.

Well, it's not complicated to infer the Earth is warming and that we are probably partly responsible for that, but it's hard to infer we are mostly responsible for that. The only way CO2 could cause so much warming is that, well, there is a positive feedback loop increasing its effect around 3 times. But the only evidence we have of that is the climate models, which we know are flawed (they predict infrared radiation from Earth will decrease, but it's been increasing).

To the small extent it's not random, there are actually experts in getting people elected, they're called campaign managers.

I think I've never heard of that. How do you say "campaign manager" in Croatian, so that I can research how it is in Croatia?

Getting people elected means understanding polling and public opinion and advertisement, not any other science or actual sound social policy.

Sorry, I don't see the difference. Overall, that seems too complicated to be true to me.

referred you to a source that discusses it more

I don't think you can have a very reliable source of information when there is so much agenda involved.

Stop with your conspiracy theory bullshit

How is that a conspiracy theory? Was saying bloodletting didn't work somehow a conspiracy theory? This doesn't appear to be based on real science, no need to posit a conspiracy to claim it doesn't work.

you sound like a Scientologist

Well, maybe Scientology did get a few things right, don't you think? So did Christianity, with abolishing animal sacrifice.

The Vulkovar massacre would also be a little harder to not be somewhat aware of.

Why do people keep misremembering the name "Vukovar" as "Vulkovar"? It's really intriguing. Even those who are probably unaware of the fact that the ancient name for the Vuka river was attested as "Ulca" on Tabula Peutingeriana and "Volcaia" by Dio Cassius.

City planners don't want something offensively ugly

And what's the point of prisons if people aren't made to be afraid of them?

Do you want to believe what is true, and then learn to be happy in reality by finding purpose in your life and trying to make the world better

No, because there is a small probability I will change the world, and a very small probability I'll make it better.

[NonZeroSum]

Do you want to believe what is true?

No

Alright, I’m done

[teo123]

Do you want to believe what is true?

No

Alright, I’m done

Also, this depends on how we define the truth. Do you believe in the utilitarian theory of the truth? If so, how is jails existing the truth? Believing that just makes you feel you bad, and you can't do anything about that.
But, if you don't believe in capitalism, why do you call yourself "NonZeroSum"? Anarcho-capitalists often say stuff like "Capitalism is not a zero-sum game, as rich become richer, the poor get richer even faster.", and that's the only time I hear the phrase "non-zero-sum game".