Chilean COVID-19 vaccine paradox

[teo123]

Yes there is, and if you took 10 seconds to research this you would know that.

What kind of research? What kind of research can make you reasonably certain of stuff like that? Yet alone ten seconds of research? Obviously, WHO is recommending against vaccine passports on the basis that we do not yet know how well vaccination against COVID-19 prevents spreading or whether it prevents at all (as well as on the basis of protecting human rights). Clearly, the motto "misli na druge" (think of others) with which Plenković'es administration encourages young people to get vaccinated is getting criticized by both left-wing and right-wing media, with the exception of Jutarnji List, as not based on science. I mean, of course, it is possible WHO and most mainstream Croatian media is wrong, but I see no reason to think that.

No expert ever said that vaccines offer 100% protection from transmission. Since they don't it is important to wear a mask whenever social distancing is not possible.

So, why should I get vaccinated then? First of all, I think I cannot get the vaccine at all right now, because the Croatian government currently, as far as I know, is not letting anybody under 30 get vaccinated unless they can prove they have a significant commorbodity (which I do not), so to make sure there will be enough vaccines for those who actually need them. Maybe that has changed, it is not easy to research that. And let's say I can get a vaccine in a regular manner. So? I will need to wait for hours in a row under the hot sun (and maybe also catch COVID there, as one elderly woman I know thinks has happened to her, she thinks she caught COVID while waiting in the line for vaccination, she needed to get hospitalized, but, luckily, she survived, although not without consequences), get that vaccine, perhaps suffer from high fever for days as a side effect (I do not know how common that is actually)... for what? I will still need to wear a mask everywhere I go.

Teo, you are still not progressing intellectually. What is holding you back?

Well, I am a little depressed now that I realized the university will not be easy for me, if I will be able to finish it at all, and that getting a job as a programmer is much harder than I thought. I have lost most of my willingness to learn new things.

[brimstoneSalad]

Yes there is, and if you took 10 seconds to research this you would know that.

What kind of research? What kind of research can make you reasonably certain of stuff like that? Yet alone ten seconds of research? Obviously, WHO is recommending against vaccine passports on the basis that we do not yet know how well vaccination against COVID-19 prevents spreading or whether it prevents at all (as well as on the basis of protecting human rights).

This has nothing to do with human rights. WHO has clearly been stacked with a bunch of extremist SJWs who put bad social theory above science. They've been doing this throughout the pandemic.

The importance of vaccine passports is to motivate people who are vaccine hesitant to actually get the jab.

All other things being the same, anything that reduces symptoms will inevitably reduce spread, because coughing and sneezing aerosolize the infectious particles. Teo, even you should have made that connection.

Just having everybody take antihistamines would have an effect without reducing viral load at all.
If you're asymptomatic you're unlikely to spread covid without kissing unless you're a very spitty speaker.

This can be overwhelmed by confounding variables like much more risky behavior, but the vaccines do reduce transmission in themselves if they reduce infection rates and symptoms. Viruses don't make you cough and sneeze for fun.

So, why should I get vaccinated then? First of all, I think I cannot get the vaccine at all right now, because the Croatian government currently, as far as I know, is not letting anybody under 30 get vaccinated unless they can prove they have a significant commorbodity (which I do not), so to make sure there will be enough vaccines for those who actually need them.

This is a unique problem in developing countries who do not have access to good vaccines. The U.S. and other developed countries are now donating effective vaccines. When you get access to them, take them.
You're unlikely to get a significant fever from the vaccine. It's way better than getting covid, and it's inevitable that you WILL get covid if you are not vaccinated. You'll get covid (a new strain) eventually even if you are vaccinated, which is why the yearly flu shot is important, but it will be much less severe if your body is trained with something similar (it will be more like a flu or even just a cold).

[teo123]

All other things being the same, anything that reduces symptoms will inevitably reduce spread, because coughing and sneezing aerosolize the infectious particles. Teo, even you should have made that connection.

I know, but the general consensus seems to be that the main way COVID-19 (and flu, and many other illnesses) spreads is by asymptomatic transmission. That is because people who do not have symptoms tend not to isolate themselves from the society. So, even if they are less infectious, they actually tend to infect more people. And vaccinating young people so that almost none of them get symptoms if they carry COVID (already most of them do not) will make things worse in that regard.

[teo123]

COVID-19 is dangerous because it is an invisible enemy. Making an invisible enemy less visible, by vaccinating young people, accomplishes nothing.

[teo123]

It's way better than getting covid

If you are an 80-year-old, it, without a doubt, is. If you are a 21-year-old... the issue seems complicated. The chances of both dying if you get COVID-19 as a 21-year-old, and of dying from a vaccine, are so low they are hard to estimate. What's more, for a reason that escapes me (maybe it is some kind of a statistical illusion), side effects from COVID-19 vaccination seem to be much more common in young people than in elderly.

[teo123]

which is why the yearly flu shot is important

And why isn't a yearly flu shot then recommended to young people and children?

[brimstoneSalad]

I know, but the general consensus seems to be that the main way COVID-19 (and flu, and many other illnesses) spreads is by asymptomatic transmission.

That is incorrect.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus- ... overview#1

It is by no means consensus that asymptomatic spread is dominant. To the contrary, it is generally understood that symptomatic spread is dominant through the creation of aerosols.

There are more controversial models with certain assumptions that predict a slight majority of transmission from asymptomatic individuals, but even in these models most of those individuals are not permanently asymptomatic but pre-symptomatic in that they have not yet noticed the symptoms or accepted the fact that they are ill -- that is, contribution from a fraction of everybody, not just young people.

And vaccinating young people so that almost none of them get symptoms if they carry COVID (already most of them do not) will make things worse in that regard.

Vaccinations further reducing symptoms means less transmissibility. It's the margin-cases that are really the most problematic, where people are mostly asymptomatic, but have just enough to be contagious.

Even among asymptomatic people, the viral load is substantially reduced which means it inherently reduces the chance of spread. Even if this has not been quantified that's irrelevant. Given the vectors, a linear reduction in risk is a reasonable assumption (but it's probably better than linear).

Current evidence suggests transmission between family (where the risk is far higher from asymptomatic individuals due to saliva transmission) is reduced by around 50%
https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/mount ... -does-work

If most young people are "asymptomatic" already, making slightly more asymptomatic isn't going to make a big difference, but making all of them less contagious by even 10% will make a difference.

Duration of infection is also almost certainly reduced with more effective immune response (even if at peak how contagious they are isn't that much different).

It's way better than getting covid

If you are an 80-year-old, it, without a doubt, is. If you are a 21-year-old... the issue seems complicated. The chances of both dying if you get COVID-19 as a 21-year-old, and of dying from a vaccine, are so low they are hard to estimate.

They're not that hard to estimate for covid infection in young people.

From 18-29 there are over 2,000 deaths from COVID.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/119 ... by-age-us/

When it comes to vaccine related deaths, they're vanishingly small. Perhaps 3 so far, and in many areas upwards of 70% of the population has been vaccinated.

Adverse events from vaccines are much more rare than serious illness from covid, and most adverse events will occur very soon after vaccination during the observation period (allergic reaction). The blood clot issue with J&J is now known and so is the treatment to prevent complications in those with a predisposition. No deaths have been associated with the mild heart inflammation in some teens.

If you don't get the vaccine when it's available to you you're not just an idiot, but an irresponsible one at that.

What's more, for a reason that escapes me (maybe it is some kind of a statistical illusion), side effects from COVID-19 vaccination seem to be much more common in young people than in elderly.

How does that reason escape you? Younger people have stronger immune responses. This is well known in terms of vaccine efficacy and side effects.

which is why the yearly flu shot is important

And why isn't a yearly flu shot then recommended to young people and children?

It is.

[teo123]

It is by no means consensus that asymptomatic spread is dominant.

From the research I have done thus far, I thought this "asymptomatic spread of COVID-19 is rare" is a bogus claim made by anti-maskers.

From 18-29 there are over 2,000 deaths from COVID.

Are those deaths from COVID-19 or merely with COVID-19? Was there any excess mortality in that age group in 2020? Mortality in the 80+ years group increased by over 50%, as far as I know, but I have not seen any statistics about other age groups.

The blood clot issue with J&J is now known and so is the treatment to prevent complications in those with a predisposition.

And, what do you think, is taking some Aspirin and Rinolan before getting the vaccine a good idea?
I suppose the biggest danger when getting that vaccine is anxiety. When I got a tetanus vaccine when I was 14, I started shaking so hard I bit my tongue and, if I remember correctly, I fell unconscious (I am not sure if that falling unconscious was when I was doing a blood test or when I was taking the tetanus vaccine). It was a very traumatic experience. The doctor said it cannot be because of the vaccine, and that it had to be due to anxiety. So, how do I make sure it does not happen again? Would some alcohol help?

How does that reason escape you?

Well, it definitely seems paradoxical that symptoms of COVID-19 are far more severe in the old people, while side-effects from COVID-19 vaccine seem to be more severe in young people.

It is.

Well, I have read this, I am not sure if it is reliable: https://parenting.stackexchange.com/que ... 8500_41583

[brimstoneSalad]

From the research I have done thus far, I thought this "asymptomatic spread of COVID-19 is rare" is a bogus claim made by anti-maskers.

Do better research.

From 18-29 there are over 2,000 deaths from COVID.

Are those deaths from COVID-19 or merely with COVID-19? Was there any excess mortality in that age group in 2020? Mortality in the 80+ years group increased by over 50%, as far as I know, but I have not seen any statistics about other age groups.

From COVID. Your second question is not relevant since we know these deaths are from COVID. The main cause of mortality in youth is things like traffic accidents. It's much easier to differentiate causes of death in this age group.

And, what do you think, is taking some Aspirin and Rinolan before getting the vaccine a good idea?

No, much like it's not a "good idea" to push around a large cart with a lightning rod with alligator clips to attach to grounding metal along your walk when the forecast calls for a 1% chance of rain to avoid the incredibly small chance of being struck by lightning.

I suppose the biggest danger when getting that vaccine is anxiety. When I got a tetanus vaccine when I was 14, I started shaking so hard I bit my tongue and, if I remember correctly, I fell unconscious (I am not sure if that falling unconscious was when I was doing a blood test or when I was taking the tetanus vaccine). It was a very traumatic experience. The doctor said it cannot be because of the vaccine, and that it had to be due to anxiety. So, how do I make sure it does not happen again? Would some alcohol help?

You fainted? Like a caricature of a little old victorian noblewoman shocked at the sight of dirt?

It's clear you have a phobia. It's hard to address from exposure because these aren't that common events. You could possibly get some saline shots to help overcome it.
All I can really say is "toughen up" and stop being a coward. Shots barely hurt at all, it's in your head.

Well, I have read this, I am not sure if it is reliable: https://parenting.stackexchange.com/que ... 8500_41583

And despite how dubious a random internet comment was for a source, you couldn't take two seconds to Google it to confirm? Teo, that's a new level of lazy for you.

"The AAP recommends annual influenza vaccination for all children and youth, 6 months of age and older."
https://www.aap.org/en-us/advocacy-and- ... olicy.aspx

[teo123]

Do better research.

And how exactly does one do good research about a controversial topic? The right way to do that is to try to understand the other side. If you are an anti-masker (as I used to be a few months ago), and you want to be more objective about the topic, you should try to understand how somebody can think that masks work. You should try to state the arguments for the other side in a way that seems compelling, or come up with your own arguments for the other side. Or try to find flaws in the arguments your side uses. Like the "Asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 is an insignificant vector, so chances that you will protect somebody by wearing a mask is very low."... Does it even sound plausible that COVID-19 would spread a lot if the primary way you could get it is by getting it from somebody who has symptoms? If trying to understand the other side has changed your mind, or even just made you respect the other side more, you know you are being objective.

It's much easier to differentiate causes of death in this age group.

What do you mean? My perception is that whenever there is a rumour that a young person in Croatia died from COVID-19, media start a discussion of whether COVID-19 is what killed them, or was it something else, and always concluding it was something else. Though, there are many such articles only about teenagers, it is possible the deaths of 20-or-so-year-olds are common enough not to make into the news.

No, much like it's not a "good idea" to push around a large cart with a lightning rod with alligator clips to attach to grounding metal along your walk when the forecast calls for a 1% chance of rain to avoid the incredibly small chance of being struck by lightning.

I do not quite understand your analogy.

You fainted?

I do not know what "faint" means.

Like a caricature of a little old victorian noblewoman shocked at the sight of dirt?

I do not know what you are talking about.

Shots barely hurt at all, it's in your head.

So what if it is caused by something in my head? It is real and I need to deal with it. Do you think drinking some alcohol before getting vaccinated to prevent that panic attack is a good idea?

you couldn't take two seconds to Google it to confirm

And why would a source that Google first gives me be any more reliable?

The AAP recommends annual influenza vaccination for all children and youth, 6 months of age and older.

What is AAP and why is it to be trusted?