Chilean COVID-19 vaccine paradox

[brimstoneSalad]

@teo123, please don't drop real people's full names here (unless they're celebrities or politicians or something). It's not nice for people to have their names come up on searches for something they didn't put out there, particularly that may be kind of private.

[teo123]

@teo123, please don't drop real people's full names here (unless they're celebrities or politicians or something). It's not nice for people to have their names come up on searches for something they didn't put out there, particularly that may be kind of private.

OK, I will not any more. I cannot edit my previous post any more, though.

[Jamie in Chile]

So, what do you think guys, what is going on in Chile? Why are COVID-19 cases and deaths significantly increasing, in spite of very high vaccination rates there? Is it:

a) Vaccines we have are, as WHO said when arguing against vaccine passports, not known to significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19, although they make people significantly less likely to experience symptoms if they get infected (because COVID-19 is mostly spread by people without symptoms, because, although infected people without symptoms tend to emit far fewer droplets, they tend not to be isolated from other people). As such, people have been lulled into false sense of security.

b) The seasonality of COVID-19 has more effect than vaccination, and it is now winter in Chile. I find that explanation very unlikely. While Vitamin D almost certainly helps against COVID-19, suggesting it somehow helps more than actual vaccines that target it seems ridiculous.

c) The data is inaccurate. How and why?

d) Something else...

I live in Chile so I can address what started this thread as I have naturally been following this.

Chile´s case numbers did not fall as quickly as some other countries (e.g. UK, US, Israel) as vaccines were being rolled out. Up until June a very high % of the total vaccines used were Sinovac, which is OK, but not as good.

In addition the people don´t or can´t respect the lockdowns as much here as a developed country.

I do think winter was a factor as well, although not a huge one.

The reason for the very specific increase at the end of May and in the first two weeks of June was very likely due to the increase of more transmissible variants of COVID that came from Brazil or Peru. They were eventually identified and tracked and some evidence was produced showing that in that period of May/June the more transmissible variants were starting to dominate. They went from being a low share of total infections to a high share.

However since your original post finally things have turned and the case numbers are now decreasing.

[Jamie in Chile]

Three (and a half) reasons:

The vaccine they use (CoronaVac) is significantly less effective than, for example, Pfizer and Moderna.

There is a new strand of Covid in Chile, against which CoronaVac is less effective.

They relaxed safety measures way too early. Social distancing and masking were removed long before they had reached any kind of herd immunity (this got even worse since the major Chilean holidays happened just before the country was about to achieve herd immunity)

It´s inaccurate to say that masking is removed, but the rest of that was accurate or close enough.

[Jamie in Chile]

Teo, I think you should get vaccinated because of the benefits to society as a whole. If it doesn´t matter hugely to you, but there is a benefit for others, you may as well do it. Also, if everyone had your attitude, everyone would lose out. You have to hope that others will do the same and hope end the pandemic.

To everyone else, I sometimes get the impression that you are ganging up on Teo a bit, it almost feels like bullying at times the way 2 or 3 of you are criticising Teo, especially when the comments are not very politely expressed, and lean towards a criticism of character rather than an argument made.

[Herdmentality905]

Chile is near Brazil, which makes sense. The newest variants will likely come from the unregulated livestock farms in the Amazon, since this is where the pandemic originated.

The shipping of this meat on the global market has caused this! Not a bat; not a bio weapon, just plain old disgusting animal-based fast food diets exported to China.

[Jebus]

Chile is near Brazil, which makes sense.

True. I just looked at a map and it does make sense that Chile is near Brazil.

The newest variants will likely come from the unregulated livestock farms in the Amazon,

Untrue.

since this is where the pandemic originated.

Also untrue.

The shipping of this meat on the global market has caused this!

Again untrue.

Thank you for putting so much thought into your post. Out of curiosity, since you list yourself as vegetarian does that mean you support the dairy industry?