Does it make sense for me to move from Croatia to the US in order to avoid war?

[teo123]

So, Trump has been elected, and there seems to be a very real chance of the US stopping helping Ukraine, and thus Russia winning the war in Ukraine. There is also a remote possibility of Putin, for some weird reason (he is obviously not a reasonable person, so it's hard to tell what to expect) attacking Hungary and the war therefore spreading to Croatia.
There is another vaguely plausible scenario of a war breaking out in the Balkans. Namely, there is a perception (in my opinion, accurate) that Serbians are being discriminated against in Bosnia and Herzegovina. And, because of that, Dodik (the leader of the Serbians in Bosnia and Herzegovina) is calling Vučić (the president of Serbia) to address that problem by militarily attacking Bosnia and Herzegovina. Thus far, Vučić has not been willing to do that. But let's say Vučić actually does that. Croatia is a strong supporter of Bosnia and Herzegovina, so Croatia might decide to "help" Bosnia and Herzegovina by attacking Serbia.
There may be another vaguely plausible scenario of a war breaking out in Croatia, namely, Anušić (the Croatian minister of defense) is saying that Hungary is trying to essentially annex the north-eastern part of Croatia by encouraging Hungarians to buy houses there. Hungary obviously finds that very provocative. I don't think it's likely that this tension will lead to a war, but it's not outside of the realm of possibility.

So, the question is, does it make sense for me to move from Croatia to the US in an attempt to avoid war?

Keep in mind that we need to consider the possibility that a civil war will soon break out in the US, between Trump supporters and Trump opponents.

[teo123]

I spend most of my free time studying social sciences, but what I find is that they have little or nothing to say about those important things. Karl Popper, for example, explicitly admitted that it's difficult to reconcile the very existence of wars with the Principle of Rationality. It's difficult to derive anything about the wars from the basic principles of social sciences.

[Red]

What's going to happen is hard to predict, but it would make sense to start looking into options for leaving for another EU country in case it does begin to go south, since I don't anticipate a Russian victory in Ukraine to bode well for Eastern Europe. And if you are that concerned about other potential conflicts in the region, maybe you should see about emigrating.

Keep in mind that we need to consider the possibility that a civil war will soon break out in the US, between Trump supporters and Trump opponents.

This is highly, highly unlikely. Despite the tensions, the US is stable unlike some Eastern European countries, and have systems tin place to resolve conflicts (Trump tried to use violence, but it didn't last very long), and no one really wants to have a bloody conflict despite their convictions, and on top of that there isn't really any unity on either side. Trump isn't going to be around much longer anyways, so a war over him won't be of much use.

[teo123]

And if you are that concerned about other potential conflicts in the region, maybe you should see about emigrating.

Emigrating to where? No country seems substantially safer. Certainly not the US.

This is highly, highly unlikely.

Then, I am afraid, you are not living in reality. I would encourage you to step out of your echo-chamber and read this article by Michael Huemer. Long story short: What do you think would have happened if Mike Pence complied with Trump's wishes? Most likely, it would result in a civil war.

Trump isn't going to be around much longer anyways, so a war over him won't be of much use.

Putin isn't going to be around much longer anyways, that doesn't mean we can ignore the dangers he and his clan poses to the world. Besides, the MAGA cult is not going to die once Trump dies.

[Red]

Emigrating to where? No country seems substantially safer. Certainly not the US.

I don't think a war is going to happen in Western Europe any time soon. If you don't feel safe in Europe or the US, you can consider Canada or Australia.

Then, I am afraid, you are not living in reality. I would encourage you to step out of your echo-chamber and read this article by Michael Huemer.

The article was about Trump's desperate and unhinged efforts to overturn the election, and that didn't last once Biden took office; If there was any chance of a civil war, it would've been during the last four years.

Even though the Democrats lost, there is absolutely zero chance of them trying to do anything like that (they conceded the election after it became clear Trump was going to win, while Trump didn't concede until pretty much the day his term ended).

Please don't talk down to me like that Teo, I am far more well-versed in US Politics than you will ever be. I take this as you being provocative, and if you're doing it out of boredom like you always do, I am not interested in continuing this discussion. You ever consider that maybe this is why no one likes you?

Long story short: What do you think would have happened if Mike Pence complied with Trump's wishes? Most likely, it would result in a civil war.

That's quite a jump, and it's completely irrelevant since contrary to what Republicans said, Pence did not have any power to overrule the electoral votes. Worst case scenario there would've been a coup against Trump, but probably not a full on civil war.

Putin isn't going to be around much longer anyways, that doesn't mean we can ignore the dangers he and his clan poses to the world. Besides, the MAGA cult is not going to die once Trump dies.

Trump is older than Putin, and Putin probably still has enough years left in him to keep this war going for quite a while. Once Trump dies, it'll be a few years until his cult of personality wanes, but in the meantime Republicans will lose power since they probably won't quite have someone like that they can get people to unify behind. We might need to do some de-Trumpification.

[teo123]

Look, @Red, to me it seems like you are massively inflating the probability of the Ukraine war spreading to Croatia, and at the same time massively deflating the probability of Donald Trump starting a civil war in the US.
I see a particular reason to think Putin will stop if he wins the war in Ukraine: in order to convince people to attack Hungary, he would have to significantly change the narrative. Putin's narrative is that the war in Ukraine is justified because Ukraine is mistreating the Russian national minority. How would he justify, in the minds of most Russians, an attack on Hungary (where there is no significant Russian national minority)?
I see no particular reason to think Trump, who has already tried to start a civil war (I assume Trump has enough of a mind to realize that his actions at least enable a civil war, if they don't make it likely.), won't do that again.
And the fact that both Trump and Putin are close to death is at best irrelevant, and, at worst, makes them even more dangerous. Maybe they think that, since they are close to death, they have nothing to lose.

[Red]

Look, @Red, to me it seems like you are massively inflating the probability of the Ukraine war spreading to Croatia, and at the same time massively deflating the probability of Donald Trump starting a civil war in the US.

I don't think it would necessarily spill onto NATO countries but I can't really see it being good news for the stability of the region.

I see a particular reason to think Putin will stop if he wins the war in Ukraine: in order to convince people to attack Hungary, he would have to significantly change the narrative. Putin's narrative is that the war in Ukraine is justified because Ukraine is mistreating the Russian national minority. How would he justify, in the minds of most Russians, an attack on Hungary (where there is no significant Russian national minority)?

He would probably move on to Moldova instead, another former Soviet Republic, since Hungary is NATO territory.

I see no particular reason to think Trump, who has already tried to start a civil war (I assume Trump has enough of a mind to realize that his actions at least enable a civil war, if they don't make it likely.), won't do that again.

The main reason why he was desperate to stay in office and blatantly disregarded democracy and precedent last time was because he was terrified of going to jail and knew that if he stayed in he'd be able to avoid prosecution. No ideology was involved on his end.

And the fact that both Trump and Putin are close to death is at best irrelevant, and, at worst, makes them even more dangerous. Maybe they think that, since they are close to death, they have nothing to lose.

I don't disagree.