Is meat consumption up?

[brimstoneSalad]

Inflation has been low and inflation doesn't change what I said. If this was all about supply you'd expect prices to decline but the more recent trend is for prices to go up which indicates a pick up in demand. That is true of the US and globally.

What kinds of prices are up? Can you show some specific evidence of this?

You wouldn't look at the pricing for tofu, it varies greatly based on brand, etc. You'd look at the prices for soybeans which are determined by aggregate supply/demand.

Soybean price is only barely related to retail tofu price in the U.S.
If you want to look at non-retail prices, then ask what the price of cows are (it's low right now) or the price of feed (also low).

Tofu compares to the retail price of finished meat products like hamburgers.
Soybean prices should be compared to the price of cows or the price of feed.

If demand were really so high, farmers could demand record high prices for cows, but that's not the case right now.

Assuming retail prices are actually higher, there are many explanations for that do not indicate domestic demand being high.
Demand in the developing world is actually growing, so export prices for meat may go a long way to explain that, and so might industry finding ways to pad profit margin in collusion with grocery stores by selling shelf space and other tricks. Cost of energy is also more relevant to foods that must be refrigerated or frozen during transport and storage.

Too many variables to make crude assumptions.

And its pop-culture that is really forming people's opinions on nutrition, the average person pays little attention to healthy eating guidelines.

The average young internet user who doesn't visit the doctor or have any chronic health conditions, maybe.
I think we're getting a biased view of general public health knowledge when we look online, where fads float to the top and people are as happy to jump on paleo bandwagons as they are to get on board with 9-11 "truth".
Alt-med and conspiracy theories go hand in hand, but I'm skeptical that either is dominant among the general public (look at Trump's disapproval rating among his once-base).
The decline in beef and pork and replacement with chicken I think at least reflects some influence on the public.

[carnap]

What kinds of prices are up? Can you show some specific evidence of this?

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings.aspx

Now the increase in prices is somewhat recent so the "its supply" excuses made more sense when people were making them but the data isn't confirming that story. I find this similar to how vegans cited the decline of meat consumption in 2007 as evidence that trends were changing but then seemed to have no interest in tracking the data to if their hypothesis was confirmed.

Soybean price is only barely related to retail tofu price in the U.S.
If you want to look at non-retail prices, then ask what the price of cows are (it's low right now) or the price of feed (also low).

Right but that is just the point, tofu is a manufactured good so its pricing is all over the place. Now if tofu was a common food item in the US you could probably use it as a proxy for soybean pricing but its not. Soybean oil (aka vegetable oil) is so that would be a better comparison to meat, chicken,etc.

If demand were really so high, farmers could demand record high prices for cows, but that's not the case right now.

Sure, if demand was "so high" but I just said the data indicates that demand is up and that its not just a supply issue. Supply-side increases in production are usually short-lived because they will depress prices without corresponding increases in demand. Meat prices have been trending up for 3 years now so that is an indication of more than just a supply-side increase.

The average young internet user who doesn't visit the doctor or have any chronic health conditions, maybe.
I think we're getting a biased view of general public health knowledge when we look online, where fads float to the top and people are as happy to jump on paleo bandwagons as they are to get on board with 9-11 "truth".
Alt-med and conspiracy theories go hand in hand, but I'm skeptical that either is dominant among the general public (look at Trump's disapproval rating among his once-base).
The decline in beef and pork and replacement with chicken I think at least reflects some influence on the public.

The "internet" isn't just young people but I wouldn't just look online. What I see online is confirmed in other areas, for example, go to a large bookstore and look at what books are being displayed in the diet section. Right now they are mostly paleo-like diets.

But I didn't have "alt-med" in mind, but instead the fact that people have many misleading or inaccurate ideas about nutrition and what they focus on largely hinges on pop-culture. Right now "sugar" is the big villain while people are starting to think less about saturated fat despite the recommendations on these not changing.

[brimstoneSalad]

What kinds of prices are up? Can you show some specific evidence of this?

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings.aspx

Really?

In 2018, retail food prices are expected to rise between 1.0 to 2.0 percent. While fats and oils, vegetables, pork, and processed fruits and vegetables could potentially decline in price, prices for beef and veal, poultry, eggs, and dairy are expected to increase. Due to deflation in 2016 and 2017, expected price increases would still leave overall price levels in 2018 lower than in 2015.

Did we not read the same article?

Some other staples decreased in price because of the stronger dollar and the import/export market.

The only meat it mentions demand being high for is pork, and specifically bacon:

In December, pork prices fell 1.5 percent from the previous month, but prices are 3.1 percent higher than in December 2016. Lower beef prices are most likely adding pressure to lower pork prices. Although USDA forecasts a 4.9-percent increase in pork production in 2017, strong consumer demand for pork (particularly for cuts such as bacon) held retail prices above 2016 prices, increasing 0.6 percent. In 2018, pork prices are expected to change between -0.5 and 0.5 percent.

Although it looks like it's mostly just compensating for increased production, and price increase may be around inflation.
As previously noted, they think pork could potentially decline in price, thus uncertainty for 2018.

It's possible that other pork overall may be down, due to low demand for most cuts, but bacon is up thus compensating for it.

I find this similar to how vegans cited the decline of meat consumption in 2007 as evidence that trends were changing but then seemed to have no interest in tracking the data to if their hypothesis was confirmed.

Either assumption, made outside of the broader context, is unwarranted.

You're wrong to jump to these conclusions about meat demand (it's far from clear based on that limited data), but I appreciate the links and argument, and that you're sticking around to make your point.

Right but that is just the point, tofu is a manufactured good so its pricing is all over the place.

A significant percentage of retail meat is heavily processed (even more so than tofu is).
Either way, retail is far removed from farms by slaughter, butchering, packaging, storage. I explained how the price cows are fetching isn't that high right now.

Beef is technically higher than it has been, but so are most goods. Again, inflation is a serious factor, as well as export demand... and there it gets really complicated.

The "internet" isn't just young people but I wouldn't just look online. What I see online is confirmed in other areas, for example, go to a large bookstore and look at what books are being displayed in the diet section. Right now they are mostly paleo-like diets.

Book stores' featured items are an even more exaggerated indication of trending fads.

But I didn't have "alt-med" in mind, but instead the fact that people have many misleading or inaccurate ideas about nutrition and what they focus on largely hinges on pop-culture. Right now "sugar" is the big villain while people are starting to think less about saturated fat despite the recommendations on these not changing.

It goes hand in hand with alt-med information streams (like anti-vax), all fad based misinformation on science.

It's weird to see people act like sugar has ever been considered healthy, as if the science is just now determining that processed sugar is bad for us.
We certainly need better nutrition education. Science education in general, but nutrition really affects people.
I think we could afford a few more people who didn't know the Earth goes around the sun if a few more knew basic nutrition.

[carnap]

Did we not read the same article?

Yes...and how prices in 2018 compare to 2015 isn't relevant to what I'm discussing. The price trend is increasing which indicates that demand has been increasing lately. It could also mean that supply has been constrained in some way but supply has been increasing the last 3~4 years. From the article:

"In 2018, retail food prices are expected to rise between 1.0 to 2.0 percent. While fats and oils, vegetables, pork, and processed fruits and vegetables could potentially decline in price, prices for beef and veal, poultry, eggs, and dairy are expected to increase."

But also that comment you've quoted wasn't specific to meat, but food costs as a whole.

You're wrong to jump to these conclusions about meat demand (it's far from clear based on that limited data), but I appreciate the links and argument, and that you're sticking around to make your point.

I'm not sure what you mean by "jump to these conclusions"....but there is never perfect information in economics so you always have to, in a sense, jump to a conclusion based on what information you do have. All I've suggested here is that the recent and projected price increases in most types of meat indicate that demand for the products has been increasing.

Beef is technically higher than it has been, but so are most goods. Again, inflation is a serious factor, as well as export demand... and there it gets really complicated.

You're mentioning inflation like it explains away demand but inflation occurs because higher demand for goods. If I dropped $1 trillion in cash across the US this would increase inflation, why? Because it would increase the demand of various goods as people spent the money.

Book stores' featured items are an even more exaggerated indication of trending fads.

They indicate what is selling at the stores demographic, just one of many pieces of information you can look at to get a clue about what is going on in some community.

It goes hand in hand with alt-med information streams (like anti-vax), all fad based misinformation on science.

I don't agree with that, at least with my discussions with people the vast majority have some significant misunderstandings about nutrition and health but aren't involved in "alt-med" as a whole.

[brimstoneSalad]

But also that comment you've quoted wasn't specific to meat, but food costs as a whole.

Including meat.

All I've suggested here is that the recent and projected price increases in most types of meat indicate that demand for the products has been increasing.

It doesn't, though, not if it's in line with inflation. Inflation doesn't mean the demand for everything is increasing.

If the price of hair cuts goes up, it could be because the price of rent went up, or the salary the barber has to be paid because the price of food went up because the price of gas went up, or many many other variables.

As I said multiple times, the retail price of meat isn't so directly connected to supply because there are a lot of factors between farm and table here.
The price of fed cows from the farm is down. That is much more directly connected to supply.
Despite that, retail meat can still be more expensive than it has been for many other reasons.

You're mentioning inflation like it explains away demand but inflation occurs because higher demand for goods. If I dropped $1 trillion in cash across the US this would increase inflation, why? Because it would increase the demand of various goods as people spent the money.

More demand for some goods, or a scarcity of some goods, the demand for all goods doesn't need to increase, and that's very apparent in food. People aren't going to eat much more because they have more money; wealth doesn't correlate to obesity within the U.S., the opposite is true and obesity is correlated with poverty.

It only takes something like rent or gas prices increasing for nearly everything else to rise with it.

The thing that has uniquely depressed the price of fruits and veggies is the strong U.S. dollar and import from other regions (like Mexico), the U.S. has an enormous trade deficit for fruits and vegetables. That's not true in the same way for meat (like finished beef) where imports and exports are roughly even (involving different cuts and grades), but as I said the economics of important and export are much more complicated.

They indicate what is selling at the stores demographic, just one of many pieces of information you can look at to get a clue about what is going on in some community.

A pretty narrow demographic. I've seen displays of vegan books too, but I don't take that to mean very much.

I don't agree with that, at least with my discussions with people the vast majority have some significant misunderstandings about nutrition and health but aren't involved in "alt-med" as a whole.

What is "involved" in alt-med? Have you asked them their thoughts on vaccinations, for example? Particularly those planning to have children who may have paid attention to all of this misinformation and due to fear believed it credible.

[NCVegan]

I also look at how much is being invested by meat and dairy companies and where. Smithfield knows and understands the global market much better than I am guessing even the USDA. While it is true they are investing in clean meat, (some money) they are also investing in huge expansions of their existing facilities. These are long term investments, so clearly they see the market growing. I think the biggest driver of meat consumption is advertising.

The good news is milk consumption is truly on the decline, but that is just one category of dairy, from everything I've read cheese consumption is on the rise as well, so milk may be going away, but dairy isn't going anywhere.

[brimstoneSalad]

I also look at how much is being invested by meat and dairy companies and where. Smithfield knows and understands the global market much better than I am guessing even the USDA. While it is true they are investing in clean meat, (some money) they are also investing in huge expansions of their existing facilities. These are long term investments, so clearly they see the market growing.

A significant part of this is also consolidation. A small handful of companies are producing virtually all of the meat, and smaller ones are closing their doors or being bought out because they can't compete with large operations.

Globally, however, there is little doubt that demand is growing due to developing countries' increasing consumption. The U.S. and China recently made a trade deal for over a billion dollars of exports in beef to China to decrease the trade deficit, and Chinese importing chicken (particularly things like feet that Americans don't usually like) is long standing and I think growing as well.

I think the biggest driver of meat consumption is advertising.

And food consumption in general. And it probably is true that Americans are eating more calories overall, and probably wasting more too, than ever before.

It's possible that meat consumption is up domestically, but if it is then it could just be because a certain segment of the population is just eating so much more and Obesity rates have risen so much which are up to around 30% (from around 10%, I think, in 1990).
People can only maintain that weight by eating far more food than they need to, so per capita food consumption has to have increased.

If 1/3rd of the country got gastric bypass surgery I suspect we'd see drastic reductions all around.

The good news is milk consumption is truly on the decline, but that is just one category of dairy, from everything I've read cheese consumption is on the rise as well, so milk may be going away, but dairy isn't going anywhere.

That makes sense; your typical value meal from a fast food restaurant is loaded with cheese, but most people don't order milk.

[carnap]

Including meat.

Yes, but that doesn't mean you can use it to extrapolate claims about meat in particular.

It doesn't, though, not if it's in line with inflation. Inflation doesn't mean the demand for everything is increasing.

On the contrary, inflation in a product of categories is a indicator that demand is increasing and that is particularly true if its sustained over years. But there are other factors so you'd have to look at the situation and there are issues of price fixing (e.g., OPEC targeting prices of oil). Long-term sustained inflation occurs because the money supply is increasing faster than the economy (similar to the example I gave with dropping cash), but in this case the underlying mechanism for the increased prices is increased demand. You have more units of money chasing a pool of products/services that isn't growing fast enough.

So the current increases in price suggest increased demand but you'll have to look at the trend over the next 1~3 years to get a better picture of what is happening.

If the price of hair cuts goes up, it could be because the price of rent went up, or the salary the barber has to be paid because the price of food went up because the price of gas went up, or many many other variables.

For a particular business, yes, but we are talking about the entire economy. Also in this case the business would find it very hard to raise prices unless other businesses had to do the same, you don't magically get more pricing power just because your costs increased. Many businesses fail because their profits get squeezed by increasing costs.

More demand for some goods, or a scarcity of some goods, the demand for all goods doesn't need to increase, and that's very apparent in food. People aren't going to eat much more because they have more money; wealth doesn't correlate to obesity within the U.S.

Wealth does correlate with obesity at the national level....just not necessarily with individuals. But that is because wealthier individuals are typically more health conscious but they will spend their food dollars on more expensive food items rather than a crude increase in the quantity of food. They also waste more. And wealthy nations waste far more food than poor nations so in both cases more money has lead to greater food purchasing.

The thing that has uniquely depressed the price of fruits and veggies is the strong U.S. dollar and import from other regions (like Mexico), the U.S. has an enormous trade deficit for fruits and vegetables.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here but the trade deficit for a particular product doesn't matter (trade is never equal on a per product basis...which is the point of trade. You trade one type of good for another). But also US produce is typically cheaper than imported produce, we import produce either because it doesn't grow well in the US (e.g., bananas) or because its not in season. Neither of these apply to meat so we end up importing less meat.

What is "involved" in alt-med? Have you asked them their thoughts on vaccinations, for example? Particularly those planning to have children who may have paid attention to all of this misinformation and due to fear believed it credible.

Sure among other things. Poor information about nutrition is very common, when people start thinking juicing cure cancer and such things they are clearly in the "alt-med" camp but there is a lot between this and just common misinformation people have about health and nutrition.

[brimstoneSalad]

Yes, but that doesn't mean you can use it to extrapolate claims about meat in particular.

It does mean it would be inappropriate to jump to conclusion based on such very general information.

You're the one saying demand is increasing, I'm saying that's not clear and doubting your claims.

For a particular business, yes, but we are talking about the entire economy.

It can apply on a nation-wide scale as well. When prices for necessities go up, a business either has to sacrifice margins or the price of the product has to increase.

Also in this case the business would find it very hard to raise prices unless other businesses had to do the same, you don't magically get more pricing power just because your costs increased.

They all have to, because all of their costs are increasing. That's how inflation works on a national scale and it bleeds into other sectors.

Many businesses fail because their profits get squeezed by increasing costs.

Yes, and agriculture already operates on pretty slim margins. They have little choice but to raise prices if their costs of production (and advertising, to fight dropping demand) increase.
One benefit for agriculture is that demand doesn't drop very much with increasing price unless there's competition from something else.

Most Americans consider meat a necessity, and will sacrifice in other areas first, but that baseline of reliable consumers may be dropping.

I think waste is the main thing soaking up that difference, because people are more wasteful when they have more disposable income.
That is, I would easily believe that people are wasting more meat, but I'm skeptical that they're eating more meat unless that's just due to the increasing rate of obesity and obese people eating more food in general. That indicates nothing about social attitudes toward meat consumption as a larger proportion of food eaten (it could still be falling in proportion but be larger overall), which is the main thing we'd be wondering about when it comes to the plant based messages.

Of course that could tell us that we should focus more on fighting obesity and on fighting waste if these factors are so large that they're overwhelming the progress made on getting people to eat less meat as a proportion of the diet.

IF consumers really are buying more meat, that needs to be looked into more.

Wealth does correlate with obesity at the national level....

From nation to nation, yes, that's why I said within the U.S. which is the data we're looking at here.

They also waste more.

This I believe, and I mentioned it before in earlier posts. I'm talking about actually eating more vs. buying more. I made the distinction a couple times.

When we're discussing the relevance to the plant based social message, it's the eating, particularly in respect to the ratio of food, that's most indicative of success.

If obesity is increasing or waste is increasing and resulting in more animal agriculture that IS terrible, but it also doesn't indicate an overall failure to change the cultural mindset for the majority of Americans.

Bear in mind I'm not even convinced that people certainly ARE buying more meat, although I agree it's possible I don't think the data necessarily says that. Inflation is a serious issue that's not accounted for there.

IF they are, though, that may tell us that we need to focus more on some of the other variables that are affecting it like obesity and waste.

But also US produce is typically cheaper than imported produce, we import produce either because it doesn't grow well in the US (e.g., bananas) or because its not in season. Neither of these apply to meat so we end up importing less meat.

It affects inflation by category, as cheap imported foods (due to the strong U.S. dollar) drive the price of the category down.
Also, consumers can be swayed to vary fruit and vegetable choices if local produce costs more than different varieties that are imported; this can force the price of local produce down as well to compete (of course hurting local farms by destroying their margins or even forcing them to sell at a loss).

My point is that there are exceptions to inflation like that, but they are driven by external forces.

It doesn't prove anything about meat.

[carnap]

It does mean it would be inappropriate to jump to conclusion based on such very general information.
You're the one saying demand is increasing, I'm saying that's not clear and doubting your claims.

Yes, I would agree but I haven't jumped to any conclusion. I've said that the data *suggests* demand may be increasing.

Yes, and agriculture already operates on pretty slim margins. They have little choice but to raise prices if their costs of production (and advertising, to fight dropping demand) increase.

They may have to, business wise, increase prices but that doesn't mean they will be able to do so....the increase in price may just reduce demand which in turn would depress the price. Different types of products respond different to price changes, some product categories have inelastic demand. Meat as a whole is somewhat inelastic, but particular cuts/types of meat are more elastic. That is when meat costs go up people often will respond by buying cheaper meats rather than cutting down meat as a whole.

but I'm skeptical that they're eating more meat unless that's just due to the increasing rate of obesity and obese people eating more food in general. That indicates nothing about social attitudes toward meat consumption as a larger proportion of food eaten (it could still be falling in proportion but be larger overall), which is the main thing we'd be wondering about when it comes to the plant based messages.

Some of the increase in meat consumption is clearly due to people just eating more but the recent increase in meat consumption (the last 3~5 years) has occurred when obesity rates have stabilized a bit. But this is one of the issues that will become more clear as time goes by.

If obesity is increasing or waste is increasing and resulting in more animal agriculture that IS terrible, but it also doesn't indicate an overall failure to change the cultural mindset for the majority of Americans.

I see no reason to believe people are wasting more meat than they use to, in fact, research on food waste shows that meat is one of the foods least likely to be wasted. But even if we assumed that is true, if people are buying more meat and simply throwing it away that would to me demonstrate even less regard (in terms of animal ethics) than if they were buying it to eat it!

I think the increases due to obesity (which clearly explain some of the increase...especially over the last 3~4 decades) is the more serious issue here.

My point is that there are exceptions to inflation like that, but they are driven by external forces.

There are pretty much exceptions to everything in economics, so its a question of what the data is suggesting and tracking the data to confirm or deny hypotheses.