What Are Biden's Chances?

[Red]

We were wrong:
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/08/11 ... n-vs-trump
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/11/opinions ... index.html

I'm not familiar enough to have a strong opinion, but do you guys think this was a good move for the Biden campaign? Was Susan Rice much better than Harris?

[Jebus]

Not a bad decision but also not the best. Dump will have lots of fun over their debate spat before the primaries. Also, coming from the west she won't help much with votes in the battle ground states. Rice VP with Harris AG would have been perfect.

[brimstoneSalad]

It's a disappointing pick.

Given Kamala Harris' controversial past as being irrationally tough on crime, I'm not so sure AG would be a good position.
I'm hoping this doesn't hurt Biden's chances. Conservatives like being tough on crime, though, so perhaps it is a safe pick in that respect.

[Red]

It's a disappointing pick.

Given Kamala Harris' controversial past as being irrationally tough on crime, I'm not so sure AG would be a good position.
I'm hoping this doesn't hurt Biden's chances. Conservatives like being tough on crime, though, so perhaps it is a safe pick in that respect.

How significant is the VP pick in terms of getting elected? Historically I can only think of a few cases where it was significant (1864 and 1960), but maybe this will be different since I think a lot of people don't expect Biden to complete his term(s), plus the office of VP actually has some importance compared to 200 years ago. I think this may also help win over some of the mixed race people maybe?

Who do you think would've made a better running mate?

[brimstoneSalad]

How significant is the VP pick in terms of getting elected? Historically I can only think of a few cases where it was significant (1864 and 1960),

2008

Who do you think would've made a better running mate?

I don't know.

[Red]

2008

Was it because Biden was so good or Palin was so bad?

BTW what exactly is Biden's position on Free Trade? People accuse him of being a Neoliberal, which usually means economic globalization, so maybe he's mostly in favour of it it (with some exceptions).

[Jebus]

Was it because Biden was so good or Palin was so bad?

Palin was exceptionally bad. At first she was very popular after delivering a good convention speech. However, whenever she had to respond to questions it became evident that she didn't have a brain; the Alaska-Russia proximity comment being her finest moment.

No, historically the VP pick has not been pivotal. This time is different because of Biden's age.

What annoys me the most is that Biden announced in advance that he would pick a woman. Choosing a woman was a wise political choice, but saying so in advance suggests that he picked her because of her gender and not because she was the most competent person for the job.

[Red]

Good article:
https://www.cracked.com/blog/5-predicti ... on-season/

I hate to be pessimistic, but given what's happening with the whole Post Office situation (I have no idea how that'll turn out), but it seems as though Trump may win. I guess brimstone was right when talking about ridiculously drastic measures.

How many of these predictions do you think will come true? I'm guessing at least 3 or 4 of them.

[brimstoneSalad]

Between shutting down the post office and extra COVID restrictions with very convenient timing it wouldn't be that hard for Republicans to steal the election.
In the past they might not have done it, but it looks now like they'll stoop to just about anything with Trump at the helm, no matter how overt the corruption.

And remember: If Trump wins this election then he's immune from prosecution forever, if he loses he will very likely go to jail. He'd let the whole country burn before allowing that to happen. I wouldn't be that surprised if he started World War III to avoid leaving office.

[Red]

What do you think of this article by Singer?
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/20 ... stifiable/
This quote is interesting:

Finally, when peaceful protests have failed, how likely is rioting to succeed? Opinions differ, but Omar Wasow’s carefully controlled study of the 1960s riots that extensively damaged many American cities suggests that they contributed to Richard Nixon’s narrow victory over the more progressive Hubert Humphrey. If so, the riots helped to reinforce the power of the police and thus to perpetuate the abuses that triggered the 2020 riots.