What Are Biden's Chances?

[brimstoneSalad]

Sounds about right, violence and property damage is usually pretty counterproductive.

[Red]

I've been seeing people call for Melania Trump to be locked in jail for using a private email, is that a joke? I know in government it's not normal to use a private email, but I don't understand how that automatically means corruption. Suspicious? Sure, I guess you can say that. Evidence of corruption? No, I don't think so. Am I missing something? I saw people who only talking about her using a private email, not necessarily what was in the emails. She isn't even in a position of power... Maybe I'm just too fucking stupid to understand why.

This *may* hurt Trump's chances, since everyone lost their shit when Hillary used a private email and thus labeled her as corrupt which cost her the election, but I don't know, since Trump isn't the one being labeled corrupt.

[Red]

RIP Ruth Bader Ginsburg, you held out for as long as you could.

[Red]

Anyway, the polls are looking good for the democrats:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... st/senate/

Of course, it's still too early, and last election taught us to not trust polls too much, so I'm not going to make any real predictions just yet.

I am willing to predict that Trump will lost the popular vote though.

[Red]

Trump tested positive for COVID, but don't get your hopes up just yet. I predict he'll recover.

Then again, Trump said it, but it seems to have been confirmed.

[Jebus]

So many potential scenarios floating through my brain right now.

Symptoms or no symptoms, republicans must know that Dump basically has no chance of winning at this point. Their best chance would be to scramble together a Pence/Haley ticket ASAP.

This would leave three hypotheticals:
1. Dump resigns now and Biden beats Pence (with Haley as VP candidate)
a. Dump gets to save face and not be a loser
b. Pence (or Haley's) chances of winning in 2024 would increase significantly if s/he were to do a good job during the remaining four months of the presidency.

2. Republicans concede the election under the following behind-the-scenes conditions/agreements:
a. Democrats promise not to stack the supreme court after Barrett fills the empty seat.
b. Democrats promise not to prosecute Dump or promise to pardon him.
Option 2 would probably be better for Pence- better to enter 2024 without not previously having lost an election.

3. Pence/Haley win the election.
I see this far more likely than Dump beating Biden. 99% of hardcore Trump supporters would still vote + a few percent of evangelicals who would have voted for Biden over Dump + a few percent who would have voted for Biden simply because he has a woman VP.

[Red]

I wish I shared your optimism, Jebus. Though I do think Biden is going to be extra cautious now of COVID.

It seems as though a lot of millenials have smartened up since last election; Instead of sitting the election out since Bernie or whoever they wanted wasn't nominated, there seems to be a lot of support around Biden this time around from these people.

[Red]

538 currently predicts that Biden will win:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Anything can happen of course. Biden pretty much has to win Pennsylvania or Florida; If he gets one of those two, I think he might win. There's a tiny chance of him winning Texas.

The Senate is looking good for the Democrats too.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... st/senate/

[brimstoneSalad]

Symptoms or no symptoms, republicans must know that Dump basically has no chance of winning at this point. Their best chance would be to scramble together a Pence/Haley ticket ASAP.

They couldn't if they wanted, some votes have already been cast for a while now (mail in). There's no obvious way to change the candidates now even if Trump were to die (he most likely will not given the treatments he was given that pretty much no other human being would have had access to).

2. Republicans concede the election under the following behind-the-scenes conditions/agreements:
a. Democrats promise not to stack the supreme court after Barrett fills the empty seat.
b. Democrats promise not to prosecute Dump or promise to pardon him.
Option 2 would probably be better for Pence- better to enter 2024 without not previously having lost an election.

There's not enough bipartisanship for that to be a possibility.
If Barrett fills that seat then NOT packing the court may no longer be an option for Democrats. It's also not a promise that would be enforceable. Nor would pardoning Trump be. No reason the Republicans would trust the Democrats.
Most of the trouble Trump is facing is not for federal crimes, and a pardon vs. a state prosecution would look very bad.

Either Trump will win, or Biden will win, and if Biden wins either Trump will leave office or he will not and it will be taken to the supreme court which may or may not decide to let Trump be the U.S. forever president since it's packed with conservatives (this is VERY unlikely, because even most of these conservatives probably wouldn't go that far). If the court does decide to let Trump be the forever president, either the military and secret service will go along with it or there will be a coup against the Republicans' abuse of power which would probably result in the arrest and military trial for treason against the members of the supreme court who voted to keep Trump the forever president, Trump, and any of congress that supported it, likely ending in a couple hundred people before a firing squad including Trump, and there's basically nothing the Republicans could do about that because the majority of the country would support it too (nor would any other country intercede). I also think the justices in the court and congress are aware of that possibility, Trump has lost a LOT of support in the military for his hasty withdrawals: https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pent ... for-biden/

[Red]

@brimstoneSalad So you're saying electing Trump was one of the greatest threats to the US democracy in history?

Seems about right.