What Are Biden's Chances?

[Jebus]

Well I didn't look at any markets, I was just anticipating a huge upset so I bet my fat friend $500 bucks.

At even odds? If so, your fat friend is a lot smarter than you. The odds were about 3 for Trump the week before the election.

I didn't want Trump

How much would you have to bet on Trump before you start wanting for him to win?

I was just expecting him to.

Why? Everything went wrong for him during the campaign. Why would you expect him to win?

[Red]

At even odds? If so, your fat friend is a lot smarter than you. The odds were about 3 for Trump the week before the election.

Again, I was expecting the polls to be broken. Hillary has pretty good market odds last time.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics ... index.html

How much would you have to bet on Trump before you start wanting for him to win?

Probably at least $3,000.

Why? Everything went wrong for him during the campaign. Why would you expect him to win?

You could say the same thing about last election.
My pessimism got the best of me, and I just assumed he would win because of the electoral college's BS (and since Americans are stupid). Biden still won by pretty narrow margins in states like Pennsylvania. Just a few ten-thousand votes would have swung the election the other way.

[Jebus]

Again, I was expecting the polls to be broken.

So was I. I thought that in the worst case scenario, the polls would be off by the same margins as in 2016, which, i.e., would mean that Biden would still win quite comfortably. It still doesn't explain why you paid twice as much for your bet than the bet was worth. A fair bet would have been you risking $250 for the chance of winning $500.

Not at all. He had a lot of good fortune in 2016, particularly with regard to Comey and the Hillary email investigation ten days before the election.

[Jebus]

Again, I was expecting the polls to be broken.

So was I. I thought that in the worst case scenario, the polls would be off by the same margins as in 2016, which, i.e., would mean that Biden would still win quite comfortably. It still doesn't explain why you paid twice as much for your bet than the bet was worth. A fair bet would have been you risking $250 for the chance of winning $500.

Not at all. He had a lot of good fortune in 2016, particularly with regard to Comey and the Hillary email investigation ten days before the election.

[Jebus]

Again, I was expecting the polls to be broken.

So was I. I thought that in the worst case scenario, the polls would be off by the same margins as in 2016, which, i.e., would mean that Biden would still win quite comfortably. It still doesn't explain why you paid twice as much for your bet than the bet was worth. A fair bet would have been you risking $250 for the chance of winning $500.

You could say the same thing about last election.

Not at all. He had a lot of good fortune in 2016, particularly with regard to Comey and the Hillary email investigation ten days before the election.