Philosophical Vegan Forum

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:18 pm

Jebus wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:25 am The only way Biden can lose the nomination at this point is by dying.

Did you end up placing any bets about Trump being the republican candidate? I'm guessing they have the odds very different now.

And yes, there is a good chance Trump will win the election again against Biden.

What could we have done to prevent this?? Do you think Warren could've won?
There's still a chance Biden can win but it's about as likely as Sanders winning the nomination. Trump has gotten all but one delegate (the other being Bill Weld, who would've been a much better candidate).

I suppose you were right when you said:

brimstoneSalad wrote:It's unfortunate that Hillary wasn't elected, but we have a chance at somebody better if liberals can overcome party dogma and anti-science extremism to rally behind somebody sensible. Based on your mindset to that end, though, I don't have any hope of that happening.

On that basis, If you and I can't agree on a candidate, I predict eight years of Trump, and probably eight more years of a Republican after him. We'll never overcome this, and the left will never unify against him. As much as I dislike Trump, I know I will never give in to liberal pseudoscience and damn the world. I'll support him if it comes down to him and Sanders (unless pigs fly and Sanders actually changes his mind on a couple critical issues).

Oh yeah, and what about that 538 article you showed us about how Trump isn't likely to win the nomination?

Trump has demonstrated himself to be much worse than anybody expected, but he still has GOP backing.

There are a few things that could prevent Trump from winning. Caronavirus could, either if he gets it and becomes ill or his voter base which is mostly old is kept home by it.

Red wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:25 pm Oh yeah, and what about that 538 article you showed us about how Trump isn't likely to win the nomination?

What? And what about it?

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:51 pm Trump has demonstrated himself to be much worse than anybody expected, but he still has GOP backing.

I wish the left had this type of loyalty to their tribe as the Republicans do. Maybe Hillary could've won, and we wouldn't be in this mess.

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:51 pmThere are a few things that could prevent Trump from winning. Caronavirus could, either if he gets it and becomes ill or his voter base which is mostly old is kept home by it.

Could one good thing come of this?

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:51 pm What? And what about it?

You said Trump is unlikely to get primaried, then linked us this article:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... primaried/

I actually had a glimmer of hope when you sent this.

I'm still gonna vote for Biden in both the primaries and general, but it isn't gonna do much good.

Red wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:45 pm

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:51 pm What? And what about it?

You said Trump is unlikely to get primaried, then linked us this article:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... primaried/

And? What about it? That article says what I said. Trump probably won't be primaried, which means he has the nomination without a fight.

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:41 pm

Red wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:45 pm

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:51 pm What? And what about it?

You said Trump is unlikely to get primaried, then linked us this article:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... primaried/

And? What about it? That article says what I said. Trump probably won't be primaried, which means he has the nomination without a fight.

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh see I didn't understand I see now

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:18 pm Did you end up placing any bets about Trump being the republican candidate?

That would have been a good bet three years ago. I remember when markets were not sure if Trump would complete one year as president. However, lately (in the past year) odds have been 1.01 for Trump being the republican candidate. One would get a better payout from putting the money in the bank for a year.

I did put a lot of money on Trump losing the general election, though.

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:18 pmAnd yes, there is a good chance Trump will win the election again against Biden.

Odds on Trump are now 2.0. A few weeks ago they were down to 1.6 (thank you Corona virus). In the polls, Biden leads Trump in all battleground states except Florida where Trump has a 2-point lead. Biden has a big lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan. If he only wins those two he can lose all the other battleground states (Florida, NC, Arizona, and Wisconsin) and still win the election. Also, Texas is no longer a given for republicans and it is not unlikely Biden will win it. Once democrats take over Texas, the era of asshole presidents is likely to be over.

The economy over the next eight months will be crucial. If still strong when the election comes around it will likely be a close race. If the U.S. is in recession, Biden will unlikely lose the election.

I'd say things are looking very good for Biden at the moment.

The big thing to consider is that the incumbent almost always wins, even if unpopular. Polling also had Trump losing to Hillary and yet he won, so the polls don't seem strong enough to be confident about that. Democrats very often just don't get out to vote, and there's a good chance independents and Bernie supporters will sit this one out.

Jebus wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:19 pm I did put a lot of money on Trump losing the general election, though.

I hope you win that bet, of course.

Jebus wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:19 pmOdds on Trump are now 2.0. A few weeks ago they were down to 1.6 (thank you Corona virus).

Corona virus could do it, Trump is bungling this big time. But he and Biden are both very old and either could get it while campaigning -- probably will get it considering how many places they have to go and how many people they meet. Biden is unfortunately a little older than Trump is. Maybe in better health though? It it takes on of them off the campaign trail at a critical time that could make the difference.

Jebus wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:19 pmAlso, Texas is no longer a given for republicans and it is not unlikely Biden will win it. Once democrats take over Texas, the era of asshole presidents is likely to be over.

That would be a big surprise. Republicans have traditionally been pretty good at rigging elections when they're in such overwhelming power in an area.

Jebus wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:19 pmThe economy over the next eight months will be crucial. If still strong when the election comes around it will likely be a close race. If the U.S. is in recession, Biden will unlikely lose the election.

The economy is an important point, and this stuff Trump is starting with China isn't helping him. Plus the carnona virus may be a big hit.

Republicans are mostly old. If they're afraid of leaving the house to go to polls that could be a game changer.

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:23 am The big thing to consider is that the incumbent almost always wins, even if unpopular.

There has never been a president this unpopular. He is so unpopular that many who have never voted before will vote for the first time.

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:23 am Democrats very often just don't get out to vote, and there's a good chance independents and Bernie supporters will sit this one out.

Nope. Not this one. Everyone knows this is likely the most important election in his/her lifetime. There will be record numbers.

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:23 amPolling also had Trump losing to Hillary and yet he won, so the polls don't seem strong enough to be confident about that.

Pollsters are unlikely to repeat their mistakes from 2016.

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:23 amBut he and Biden are both very old and either could get it while campaigning -- probably will get it considering how many places they have to go and how many people they meet.

I don't think either of them will catch it. Trump is more likely to get it as he is still shaking people's hands.

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:23 amRepublicans are mostly old. If they're afraid of leaving the house to go to polls that could be a game changer.

Yapp, especially in Florida. Even the number of senior citizens dying before the election could affect the outcome.

Jebus wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:34 pm Yapp, especially in Florida. Even the number of senior citizens dying before the election could affect the outcome.

This is looking like it's going to be huge in the U.S., the government is doing a terrible job containing this and people don't have the experience other countries have with real deadly epidemics. It's like anti-vaxxers, so distanced from the diseases we're concerned about that they can't comprehend the magnitude of risk here.

If all of the liberals are staying home while all of the conservatives go around licking doorknobs because they think it's all a big joke, there could be a massively disproportionate death-toll politically even among the middle-aged.

brimstoneSalad wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:28 am If all of the liberals are staying home while all of the conservatives go around licking doorknobs because they think it's all a big joke, there could be a massively disproportionate death-toll politically even among the middle-aged.

You're saying this hypothetically, right? That younger progressives will be more cautious, and older conservatives will be less so? Do you think that younger people will be more cautious than older?

Younger people might not be that worried about it since it's really very dangerous for older people, so they brush it off (I'm more worried about giving the disease to the elderly).

I do think it's possible that corona can swing this election.