Is meat consumption up?

[brimstoneSalad]

For example in the US per person meat consumption has increased the last 2~3 years and is projected to reach on all time high in 2018.

Can you link to some sources on that? I'd like to see where you're getting these numbers.

[bigbossomni]

Google it that study is everywhere. And lab grown meat might be around as soon as 2021. But I think it will be expensive and the majority of people will still prefer the real deal than the lab grown stuff. Veganism seems to be stagnating for awhile now

[brimstoneSalad]

Google it that study is everywhere. And lab grown meat might be around as soon as 2021. But I think it will be expensive and the majority of people will still prefer the real deal than the lab grown stuff. Veganism seems to be stagnating for awhile now

I asked carnap, but if it's easy to find you could produce a link, or just tell me the name of the "study" and then I can find it.
I already did Google, and turned up conflicting results that suggested meat production/consumption was down (although chicken seems to be up).

[carnap]

For example in the US per person meat consumption has increased the last 2~3 years and is projected to reach on all time high in 2018.

Can you link to some sources on that? I'd like to see where you're getting these numbers.

The figures are from the USDA, here is a chart of them:

http://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/per-capita-consumption-of-poultry-and-livestock-1965-to-estimated-2012-in-pounds/

And at least for the last few years, the consumption of all types of meats has gone up.

[brimstoneSalad]

OK, I thought you were going to cite some actual study or analysis that took into account major confounding variables like waste and meat type, not an industry site giving raw numbers based likely on mere food availability numbers and with vastly different composition and weighing standards (carcass weight and retail weight, none of which are actual meat).

The figures are from the USDA, here is a chart of them:

http://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/per-capita-consumption-of-poultry-and-livestock-1965-to-estimated-2012-in-pounds/

Historically, since the 60's and 70's, red meat consumption has dropped drastically and poultry has increased, both chicken and turkey.

Overall numbers took a dip over the recession, which is kind of expected (vegans can't claim responsibility for that dramatic dip starting 2007-2008 and recovering around 2015, where a lot of people just bought less food, and likely wasted less too).
There are many sources discussing this, but here's an industry source:
https://www.processingmagazine.com/recession-exacerbates-meat-consumption-declines/

And at least for the last few years, the consumption of all types of meats has gone up.

It looks like that if you ignore the text at the bottom:

Note: All poultry and livestock products are on a retail weight basis, except “other chicken” and “turkey” which are reported by USDA on a carcass-weight basis.

A better question is how much meat people are actually eating, not how many pounds of bones and cartilage they are buying and throwing away, or even how conservative they're being in the kitchen and how much of their own leftovers they're eating.

Like I said, red meats have been on the decline and those are typically boneless (obviously there are a few cuts sold with bones). That's pretty credible because it's a long-term trend which is in line with cultural changes and mainstream health advice.

Poultry is more often sold as carcass at retail (almost nobody is buying whole pigs or cows), and "other chicken" + turkey weight is reported entirely on a carcass basis. Account for that in the data and the picture is far less clear, which is why it's a problem to confirm your assumptions based on naive statistics like that rather than actual studies on diet.

We don't really have much good data on dietary poultry consumption. It's entirely possible that people are actually eating more meat, although if they are it's also likely that that increase is in part due to the Paleo trend today and is represented by a minority eating a disproportionate amount. We just don't know.

It's not just difficult to get numbers on how many vegans there are, it's very hard to properly assess dietary practices. We can guess at them based on food availability, but small swings aren't very compelling given confounding variables. Historical trends suggest reduction in red meat and replacement with poultry, but in terms of totals we don't really know.

[brimstoneSalad]

Yes, it's availability as I thought (which is what I've seen actual studies honestly admit).

https://twitter.com/jacyreese/status/948675693919064065

Also, likely influenced by feed prices as Jacy mentioned there.

There's no evidence that these increases are fueled by consumer demand.

Here's more on the limitations of food availability data:
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-availability-per-capita-data-system/food-availability-documentation/

[carnap]

OK, I thought you were going to cite some actual study or analysis that took into account major confounding variables like waste and meat type, not an industry site giving raw numbers based likely on mere food availability numbers and with vastly different composition and weighing standards

The numbers are based on USDA figures and the USDA is the organization that tracks agricultural production. Each type of meat is tracked separately (as can be seen in the chart) but nobody can easily determine how much of the meat people are purchasing is actually being consumed rather than wasted.

In any case, this is the most rigorously tracked data series on meat consumption.

It's entirely possible that people are actually eating more meat, although if they are it's also likely that that increase is in part due to the Paleo trend today and is represented by a minority eating a disproportionate amount. We just don't know.

The best data we have shows people people are eating more meat.....we can only guess as to why that is the case.

People usually don't stay on fad diets long so I doubt people doing the paleo-diet has had a big impact but the paleo diet and other similar diets have changed the way people think about meat. At least from my experience 10 years ago people were more likely to think they should "eat less meat" while today people are more focused on eating less sugar or processed foods and think whole meats are healthy.

[carnap]

Also prices of meat are going up so that indicates increased demand not just increased supply.....if supply was increasing without a corresponding increase in demand you'd expect prices to decline but the opposite is occurring.

[brimstoneSalad]

Also prices of meat are going up so that indicates increased demand not just increased supply.....if supply was increasing without a corresponding increase in demand you'd expect prices to decline but the opposite is occurring.

First, prices of almost everything have gone up; that's how inflation works. You're presenting some pretty long term data.

You'd have to do an analysis of prices against supply and control for the effects of inflation and other variables like import/export and government subsidies which interfere substantially with the market when it comes to feed and animal products. That could get you close to an answer.

Beyond that, what prices? Of meat at the supermarket? For all meat? Because increased retail price could be an indication of more spillage, wasted time occupying refrigerator space, and lower demand.

For example, the price of tofu varies wildly by region based on whether people are buying it, and it's low where it has a high demand.

What about price for cattle from feedlots? Live chickens?

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/livestock/2017-cattle-outlook-prices-havent-hit-the-bottom

Industry sites suggests the prices for cattle have been falling, and a surge in supply may be bad news.
Export, as it notes in that article, is very significant and can tremendously affect domestic supply and price.

The best data we have shows people people are eating more meat.....we can only guess as to why that is the case.

Maybe, but even if so that does not mean there's higher demand for meat. It could be it's just the cheapest thing for the lower and middle-class to fill up on right now due to low feed prices and grocery sales.

People usually don't stay on fad diets long so I doubt people doing the paleo-diet has had a big impact

Individually they don't, but people cycle through them on a population basis. Paleo, as a transient dietary meme, has an effect. It's not clear how large, but it's certainly popular right now.

At least from my experience 10 years ago people were more likely to think they should "eat less meat" while today people are more focused on eating less sugar or processed foods and think whole meats are healthy.

Pop-nutrition is everywhere, I think we get a biased sample online, though. Most mainstream health advice steers people toward limited chicken and fish, low-fat dairy, and otherwise plant-based diets focused on veggies, fruits, and whole grains. It's not surprising to see the shift toward chicken, though. I'm tempted to run the numbers on edible yield variation between the USDA figures to see if there's more pounds of edible meat available per capita after all.

[carnap]

First, prices of almost everything have gone up; that's how inflation works. You're presenting some pretty long term data.

Inflation has been low and inflation doesn't change what I said. If this was all about supply you'd expect prices to decline but the more recent trend is for prices to go up which indicates a pick up in demand. That is true of the US and globally.

For example, the price of tofu varies wildly by region based on whether people are buying it, and it's low where it has a high demand.

You wouldn't look at the pricing for tofu, it varies greatly based on brand, etc. You'd look at the prices for soybeans which are determined by aggregate supply/demand.

Maybe, but even if so that does not mean there's higher demand for meat. It could be it's just the cheapest thing for the lower and middle-class to fill up on right now due to low feed prices and grocery sales.

Increased per person production along with raising prices indicates higher demand. Without higher demand the market would get flooded and prices would decline and supply would decline as producers respond to lower prices.

Individually they don't, but people cycle through them on a population basis. Paleo, as a transient dietary meme, has an effect. It's not clear how large, but it's certainly popular right now.

My point was that its not people following the diet that are likely to impact much but rather how the diet has changed the conversation about meat as whole and how it impacts people's behavior after they tried the diet.

And its pop-culture that is really forming people's opinions on nutrition, the average person pays little attention to healthy eating guidelines.