What Are Biden's Chances?

[Red]

Biden was more like my third or fourth choice in the primaries, but I don't mind him too much, since he's fairly sensible on social issues, is quite science based, and is willing to listen to the experts. I voted for him in the primaries (not that it made much of a difference anyway) and I also donated a few bucks towards his campaign. This election is probably more important than the last one, so he's got to campaign hard. I'm not much of a political activist, since I don't think it's the best way to help out the world, since political issues are mostly domestic in a country that's already pretty well off, but given how much Trump is hurting the world, I don't think this is just a political activist thing anymore.

Before 2020, I thought Trump had a modest chance at winning, but given the Pandemic and the Faux Civil Rights Movement going on (come at me), what with Biden being Obama's former VP, this severely helps Biden. There is still a few months until the next election, so it's still up in the air, so hopefully Trump keeps fucking up?

Some say that since incumbents often win reelection, that's a pretty good indicator that Trump will win. While it is true that historically incumbents win reelection, the amount of incumbent presidents that won reelection while losing the popular vote the first time around (but winning the electoral college) is one; Bush Jr., who I think mainly won due to some lasting popularity after 9/11 (and even then it was still somewhat of a close race). John Quincy Adams lost reelection in a landslide, and Benjamin Harrison lost to former opponent and former President Grover Cleveland in 1892. I would include Hayes, whose opponent won a majority of the popular vote, but he chose to only serve one term. Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean that Trump won't win or his chances are lower than average, but historically, losing the popular vote the first time around likely means you won't win the next time. Maybe things have changed in the past century, so who knows.

Honestly it looks like Trump's more concerned with securing reelection than any of the consequences. especially given his nationalistic agenda that's hurting the world more than it helps the US (if it helps the US at all), and his atrocious response to COVID. I think he kinda screwed himself over on that one, since if he faced the issue head on instead of trying to suppress it, it probably wouldn't have hurt the economy as much as it did (which will recover, but probably not in time for the election).

[brimstoneSalad]

Some say that since incumbents often win reelection, that's a pretty good indicator that Trump will win. While it is true that historically incumbents win reelection, the amount of incumbent presidents that won reelection while losing the popular vote the first time around (but winning the electoral college) is one; Bush Jr.,

That was a recent case, so is more relevant than those longer ago.
It's also not clear what the relevance of the popular vote in the first election is, if it's relevant at all. You could also find something other irrelevant correlation like what color tie the person wears. If you look hard enough you'll find correlations that reinforce your view but it doesn't mean they're meaningful. A postdiction is a poor replacement for a valid prediction.

who I think mainly won due to some lasting popularity after 9/11 (and even then it was still somewhat of a close race).

Trump has lasting popularity due to his personality cult.
I'm assuming he's going to win, I'd rather be pleasantly surprised if he doesn't.
Biden is less than ten points ahead in the polls, not much better than Hillary was doing.

[Red]

That was a recent case, so is more relevant than those longer ago.
It's also not clear what the relevance of the popular vote in the first election is, if it's relevant at all. You could also find something other irrelevant correlation like what color tie the person wears. If you look hard enough you'll find correlations that reinforce your view but it doesn't mean they're meaningful. A postdiction is a poor replacement for a valid prediction.

Why do you think it is that incumbents usually win reelection, even if they are unpopular? Is this a recent trend? Is it due to the fact that people are too comfortable with how things currently are and don't want to gamble it?

Thinking back to Presidential elections over the last 100 years, incumbents who won reelection were often popular (there were lots of landslides back then). The only President in recent memory who wasn't super popular that won reelection was Bush Jr. I suppose Obama wasn't the most popular either, as he won 2012 with a narrower margin.

Trump has lasting popularity due to his personality cult.

Well I was more referring to Bush's approval rating, which was at 90% then slowly went down. But Trump I can see how it can be different with Trump.

I'm assuming he's going to win, I'd rather be pleasantly surprised if he doesn't.
Biden is less than ten points ahead in the polls, not much better than Hillary was doing.

I'm a bit worried about it as well, which is why I get a little anxiety when I see trends on social media about how Biden's gonna be the next President. Like, don't get your hopes up.

After Trump, do you think the US has a shot at having a decent candidate? I'm mostly concerned with Climate Change, as well as animal rights (which Trump's presidency has harmed).

[Jebus]

I'm assuming he's going to win

Why would you assume that? The economy would have to improve significantly before the election if Trump is going to have a chance and there are no indicators that will happen. The only other way he could win is to dig up some old dirt on Biden, like some evidence that he finger slammed Tara Reade.

Biden is less than ten points ahead in the polls, not much better than Hillary was doing.

A lot of people are saying this and I don't see what that has to do with anything in 2020. Clinton's lead dropped to three percent right before the election after Comey reopened the Bengazi investigation just days before. She then "won" the election by two percent. She had a small polling lead in most of the main battleground states and lost them within the margin of error.

Biden has consistently lead the polls against Trump since polling began two years ago and his lead has never been larger than it is today. Not only does Biden have a lead in the main nine battleground states, but he also leads in Texas, Georgia and Ohio which Trump won comfortably in 2016.

Let's also not forget that Biden needs significantly fewer of the battleground states since his "for sure" states account for more delegates than Trump's "for sure" states.

It basically comes out like this:

If Biden wins Texas it is game over.
If Biden wins Florida he only needs to win one of the following states: Arizona, Wisconsin, NC, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.
If Biden loses Florida, he will need to win Pennsylvania and one more of the above states.
If Biden loses Florida and Pennsylvania, he will need to win three of the five above mentioned states.

[Jebus]

Why do you think it is that incumbents usually win reelection, even if they are unpopular? Is this a recent trend?

I wouldn't read into that at all. There is a reason they became presidents in the first place and those reasons usually continue to be advantageous four years later. Beyond that, the sample size is too small to draw any conclusion that incumbents have any advantage. The economy is a far more important predictor. Since 1900, only one president (McKinley) managed to get reelected during a recession.

The only President in recent memory who wasn't super popular that won reelection was Bush Jr.

He profited from both a war and a strong economy and still nearly lost.

[brimstoneSalad]

Quite a bit can happen in four months.

Trump has a pretty good chance of losing pretty much everything and going to prison for a long time if he doesn't win this election. The statute of limitations for most federal crimes is five years. While I'm not sure of the exact details of his crimes and their respective statutes of limitations, there's a much better chance that he'll get away with everything if he wins the next term and manages to avoid committing any more serious federal crimes.

This makes for a highly motivated candidate. He doesn't care about fiscal conservatism or the national debt, he cares about winning the next election and dodging prison and keeping his money. If that means giving every eligible voter a $100,000 stimulus to buy the next election he'll probably try to do it. The risk is the Republican party breaking with him and blocking his election buying stimulus IF they stick to their conservative values... however that doesn't seem likely given everything they've yielded to so far in his support. Doubling the national debt to win? Doesn't seem like anything that would make them blink at this point.

[Red]

It's worrying to think about this. I still find it outrageous how the supporters think that Trump really has their best interests in mind, even after all the shit he's done. Suppose that's what a cult of personality is though.

I'm also worried about Jebus's money, got a good amount riding on it.

[Red]

Random question, do you think that if Trump wins reelection he'll start supporting more progressive policies since he doesn't have to worry about a reelection and keeping party support as much? I wouldn't bank on it, but is it possible?

Maybe he'll actually get back on board with wanting single-payer; I'm convinced he still wants that, but is too concerned with keeping reelection to promote it.

[Jebus]

Even if he were somehow to win it will be hard for him to get anything done given that both the congress and the senate will probably have a democratic majority.

A second Trump term would bring us unprecedented laziness. He would spend more time on the golf course than the oval office, and more time in Mar a Lago than Washington. He would however still have a big need to please those who love him and hurt those who hate him. Therefore, indirectly he would still support republican policies even though he has no ideological motivation to do so.

There is also a good chance he would be the first president since Cleveland to get divorced while in office.

[Red]

Even if he were somehow to win it will be hard for him to get anything done given that both the congress and the senate will probably have a democratic majority.

What are the odds for that at the moment? I hope that's true, I've been seeing ads by Republicans trying to get donations so they can keep their Senate Majority.

A second Trump term would bring us unprecedented laziness. He would spend more time on the golf course than the oval office, and more time in Mar a Lago than Washington. He would however still have a big need to please those who love him and hurt those who hate him. Therefore, indirectly he would still support republican policies even though he has no ideological motivation to do so.

I don't even know why he even got into politics; His life was amazing before, with a great reputation, now he just added in a load of stress into his life, AND his home state and half the country despises him (and his historical reputation is ruined too). If he were doing good things, this would all be understandable, but it isn't.

There is also a good chance he would be the first president since Cleveland to get divorced while in office.

I can see that happening, I bet Melania was meaning to divorce for a while now.