Will Covid evolve into something much worse?

[teo123]

What do you think about the Croatian biologist Gordan Lauc saying that COVID-19 is, unlike most viruses, likely to evolve into something even more deadly, as COVID-19 is spread much more by symptomatic people than asymptomatic ones (and, since virus wants to spread, it is likely to evolve into something causing symptoms in more people), and that the imperfect vaccines we have today (especially the mRNA vaccines, which make you immune to only a few proteins from a virus, rather than all the proteins in a virus, and a virus can easily change just those few proteins that mRNA vaccines make you immune to) accelerate the evolution of the deadlier strains, rather than decelerating it? I hope that is not true, but his arguments seem rather compelling to me.

[teo123]

I mean, I do not know what exactly is wrong with Lauc'es arguments, but it seems to me you could use exactly the same argument to suggest flu will evolve into something even more deadly, and we empirically see it is not happening.

[Jebus]

Viruses like Covid, and the flu, don't benefit from people getting sick and dying. On the contrary, they spread quicker when those infected are asymptomatic.

[teo123]

Viruses like Covid, and the flu, don't benefit from people getting sick and dying. On the contrary, they spread quicker when those infected are asymptomatic.

Asymptomatic people are not good spreaders because they do not emit a lot of droplets.

[Jebus]

Asymptomatic people are not good spreaders because they do not emit a lot of droplets.

They are excellent spreaders simply because they are more likely to be around other people. Although the asymptomatic and presymtomatic are less likely to cough than the the symptomatic, they are equally likely to sneeze and breath, and more likely to emit speech droplets.

[teo123]

Asymptomatic people are not good spreaders because they do not emit a lot of droplets.

They are excellent spreaders simply because they are more likely to be around other people. Although the asymptomatic and presymtomatic are less likely to cough than the the symptomatic, they are equally likely to sneeze and breath, and more likely to emit speech droplets.

By that logic, vaccinated individuals, as well as children, would be excellent spreaders of COVID-19. We see this is not the case. Not a single case of a child infecting his or her parent has been documented. And vaccinated individuals infecting unvaccinated ones or each other is also very rare.

[Jebus]

Asymptomatic people are not good spreaders because they do not emit a lot of droplets.

They are excellent spreaders simply because they are more likely to be around other people. Although the asymptomatic and presymtomatic are less likely to cough than the the symptomatic, they are equally likely to sneeze and breath, and more likely to emit speech droplets.

By that logic, vaccinated individuals, as well as children, would be excellent spreaders of COVID-19. We see this is not the case. Not a single case of a child infecting his or her parent has been documented. And vaccinated individuals infecting unvaccinated ones or each other is also very rare.

I didn't use logic. I looked at the research. You tried to use logic, and the logic was flawed. You just need to look at the research. Vaccinated individuals are not good spreaders simply because they are a lot less likely to be infected. Children are less likely to infect others because they carry a lower viral load.

[teo123]

You just need to look at the research.

Using logic is more important than looking at the research.

Vaccinated individuals are not good spreaders simply because they are a lot less likely to be infected.

But didn't the Lancet study find that vaccines we have against COVID-19 are only around 10% protective against the infection?

[teo123]

Vaccines not significantly protecting against infections is also corroborated by epidemiological data, namely, the fact that most vaccinated countries in Europe also have the highest number of cases per capita (but not deaths per capita).

[Jebus]

You just need to look at the research.

Using logic is more important than looking at the research.

I think this is the main reason you are always wrong about everything. You try to figure things out on your own rather than just trusting the stats that come from the experts.

Vaccinated individuals are not good spreaders simply because they are a lot less likely to be infected.

But didn't the Lancet study find that vaccines we have against COVID-19 are only around 10% protective against the infection?
[/quote]

Recent studies show it is more like 70-80%.