So Trump Won, Is Everything Fucked?

[Red]

I, like many others, am incredibly disappointed by the election results, but I can't say I'm surprised given how tight the polls were and how Trump always manages to have the polling errors be in his favor. It made me $500 so I can't complain too much, though that isn't a really great silver lining (funny thing, way I found out about the results when I saw a $500 transaction on my CashApp, and it was only 1 AM).

We can sit around and point fingers and say what could or should have been done but there isn't much utility in that at this point, plus it's too easy to see what would have been more optimal in hindsight. Trump won, and that's what we need to deal with.

I'm going to avoid the nightmare scenarios (Project 2025, reversing LGBT rights, turning the US into an actual autocracy, etc.) and focus on what seems much more likely to happen once Trump gets into office, especially since he has Congress and the Supreme Court in his pocket. Even avoiding the worst case scenario, I say with considerable confidence that the next Trump presidency will be overwhelmingly terrible for the country and the world. So let's go over some of his promises and potential policies I believe will be the most damaging.

Ukraine
This is the biggest one. During the Russian Invasion, the US has been the main supporter of Ukraine, sending trillions of dollars over and tons of supplies and resources, under the perspective that if Russia were to take Ukraine, that could lead to them taking over other countries (probably other former USSR countries, like Moldova, depends on Putin's hubris). But as the shitty SNL skits joke about, Trump is pretty cozy with Putin, and much of the Republican constituency firmly believes the US should stop sending Ukraine aid. If he manages to cut off support and lift the sanctions on Russia, this could spell the end of Ukraine, and would have serious implications for the rest of Europe.

Trump says he's going to broker peace between the two countries, but I'm not going to count on that shit for a second. I doubt he has any idea behind Putin's motives for this invasion, and even though he's buddy buddy with Putin, that doesn't mean he'll be able to magically create mutual relations between the two all of a sudden, after two and a half years of war. I don't see Putin willing to give up on this for a long time, I see his cancer coming back and killing him as more likely. If he somehow does broker peace, I'd be astonished and will consider that a big fat gold star for his administration.

However, it might not be completely hopeless for Ukraine. Trump doesn't necessarily need to cut off support, he could just shift from lend-lease to making it a loan for Ukraine, which they can pay off after a few years, which would be great because if we get a Democrat in the next term, he or she can just cancel the debt. Not to mention, the US defense industry will probably continue to sell them weapons, which will make Republicans happy. It won't be ideal, but at least Ukraine won't lose. Maybe Zelenskyy will persuade Trump to help him out. We will see.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOwjmKMmkV4

Palestine
Alright, Palestine is demonstrably fucked. Sorry guys. Unlike Ukraine, I don't see any hope at all here, as Trump promised to beef up support for Israel, and there is a huge ideological investment there. While the implications won't be as dire as they are for a Ukraine defeat, this is going to fester even more tension in the Middle East, so I have no hope for even that two state solution.

I don't really have a lot to say on this one since the writing is on the wall, so just buckle up.

Tariffs
This is a big one, and it's not only terrible for the US consumers, but for working class people in developing economies.

Trump is proposing slapping a 10-20% tariff on all imported goods, with a 60% tariff on all goods imported from China.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 ... typical-f/
For a highly developed country like the US, such tariffs will have little benefit beyond maybe bringing back some jobs from countries where they've been exported to, though I don't consider that a benefit at all because we're taking jobs away from people who desperately need them and giving them to people who don't really need them and have access to social safety nets and education. It might not even bring back many jobs at all since most of them are going to be automated anyways.

Regardless of any "benefit," since we will be trading much less with poorer countries that do most of our manufacturing (China especially, but also India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Latin American countries, and a few others), we'll be developing more stuff here, and stuff here is made by workers with phenomenal working conditions and high quality standards. Sounds great, until you realize that those costs are passed onto the consumer, which is just going to exacerbate these already high prices and inflation since you’re forcing everything to be produced in high-cost conditions.

What's so hilariously ironic about this to me is that the reason why people voted for Trump against Harris is because they blamed the Biden Administration (which remember Harris is apart of) for inflation and shit being expensive, while this tariff is just going to make things even MORE expensive and jack up inflation even more. It's baffling how ignorant people are of basic economics. When this shit hits the fan, there's probably going to be a recession due to the lack of economic activity and shrinking of GDP. Americans will realize their mistake, but by then it'll have been too late.

Of course Harris's plans to take on the prices were ridiculous on their own terms:
https://fortune.com/2024/09/03/kamala-h ... -politics/
But that isn't relevant now.

BONUS PREDICTION: When an economic recession hits, Republicans will blame it on Biden.

Climate Change
This one... might not be... THAT bad...

Trump has always been fairly strong on nuclear power, and I think he's even better on it than Harris was. Nuclear power is easily over 80% of the solution to climate change, so any policy that's centered around it is about as ideal as you can get. Unfortunately though Trump is also super pro fossil fuels, so the progress won't be as substantial, and he has plans to roll back various climate regulations, like he did last term. He has stated that he plans to invest more in reactors which is music to my ears, so maybe there'll be some progress made here, though also some setbacks. I can't really say Harris was THAT much better on climate change to be honest, though Biden has done a lot of good on it, until you remember that under him drilling is at an all time high. I'm guessing it's because he's trying to get cheaper gas after the Russia sanctions.

Mass Deportations
This is also a big economic concern. A lot of Americans have the perception that a lot of the people coming to the US from Latin America are only coming here to leach off the benefits off us good hard workin' decent red blooded American folk, OR they're comin' to TEK ER JURBS. Despite this perception the data don't support it: https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil. ... eportation

Most of these guys come here looking for work, and if we deport them, not only is that a humanitarian disaster, but it will have serious economic harm when we export so many people working hard jobs for low pay. If they take these laborious jobs, that frees us to find better, more lucrative and productive jobs, does it not? I highly doubt a migrant worker from Mexico is going to take your job as an engineer or doctor, or even a plumber or electrician. And even if they are workers in highly specialized fields, so what? We can use people with such skills if you're concerned about your own economy.

Illegal immigration is overblown as a problem because not only are rates of it decreasing and people leaving the US are increasing, it has huge economic benefits because again most of these people come here and WORK dammit, and they participate in the economy by BUYING things.
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/m ... o-the-u-s/

Abortion
This is pretty troubling. The overturning of Roe V. Wade should have sprung millions of so called "progressives" into action when it came to the voting booths, but I guess it's understandable since it was such a long time ago that people have already forgotten about it (It was two whole years ago, that's a fucking eternity!). Or maybe, when it came to voting, people perhaps got a little selfish when filling out the ballot, only considering how their groceries were getting expensive and not the interests of struggling women (which again, voting for Trump was misguided on that front).

In any case, as we all know outlawing abortion is stupid and counterproductive since women are going to get abortions regardless, just not safely. Trump has Congress and the Courts, so he could implement a national abortion ban. This is terrible for women's rights, but there might be enough pushback against it if they try. We'll have to wait and see.

Court Appointments
This is also a massive problem. Not only did Trump appoint three justices to the supreme court, he also appointed many others to other courts, and this is going to last decades after Trump's presidency. I don't really have much to say on this one, it's pretty obvious how this is an issue for progressive policies.

These are the major policies I think will cause the most problems, I'm sure there are more. And I'm also sure that somewhere in the deep recesses of his agenda there are genuinely good policies, but by comparison they would be beyond negligible.

But hey, maybe it won't be all that bad, right?

[aroneous]

The result does seem pretty predetermined, and in hindsight probably pretty easy to already predict four years ago. Biden's fading cognitive abilities were pretty evident from the start, so the Democrats didn't really have any strong nominee for 2024. I do wonder why the polls were so misrepresentative though (it almost feels like news outlets were somehow faking them just to artificially keep up the suspense). So, I guess we really should have been anxiously awaiting this moment from the very beginning of Biden's term. And if Trump is going to fuck us, that would be something that had been predetermined as well. It's hard to say right now whether or not he is going to ban abortion or sanction Russia's attack on Ukraine, but if he does end up doing so, we'll know at that point that this was his goal all along, with a system granting him the power to do so, and so these things were also bound to happen. Not that this perspective helps much with the actual outcomes, but I personally find it does help take just a bit of the edge off when they do end up happening -- it's less like we've been suddenly thrust into a dystopian timeline, and more that we're just following the certain course of things, with its ups and downs.

Anyways, if he does try anything too crazy, I hope that the American people will come to their senses and actually follow through with an impeachment. I suppose that is all that we can really hope for.

Trump says he's going to broker peace between the two countries, but I'm not going to count on that shit for a second. I doubt he has any idea behind Putin's motives for this invasion, and even though he's buddy buddy with Putin, that doesn't mean he'll be able to magically create mutual relations between the two all of a sudden, after two and a half years of war. I don't see Putin willing to give up on this for a long time, I see his cancer coming back and killing him as more likely. If he somehow does broker peace, I'd be astonished and will consider that a big fat gold star for his administration.

The way he might go about this is pretty concerning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QC2ekfRXtjw

Giving up territory to Russia sets up a very bad precedent, and just slightly delays the inevitable IMO. I don't think this war is about land, or even much about Ukraine, for that matter. I think it's about an autocratic leader getting bored with the peaceful status quo and wanting to have a bit of fun and create some kind of story for himself in his final years. I don't think there's really any point talking about peace while Putin is still in power. He wants war. He probably doesn't even care that much about Russia's future, and has long ago come to terms with the fact that his country is doomed (in large part because of him).

[Red]

The result does seem pretty predetermined, and in hindsight probably pretty easy to already predict four years ago.

If you were to ask me a year ago, I would've said Biden had a good chance of winning, due to the incumbency advantage (which apparently isn't really a thing anymore) and because Trump lost pretty decisively to him last time, AND became a convicted felon and attempted to undermine democracy (plus other things, like Roe V Wade being overturned). I guess I wasn't really counting on Americans being short-sighted, self-interested, and forgetful. Guess I'm the idiot on that front.

Biden's fading cognitive abilities were pretty evident from the start, so the Democrats didn't really have any strong nominee for 2024.

That's why people are saying they should've had a primary, though I'm not sure if it would've made much of a difference. Were people angry at the White House, or were they angry at the Democrats in general? Not that Trump offered any realistic solutions to their problems.

Not trying to throw too much shade at Harris, but her campaign made a LOT of mistakes, namely not doing too much to distance herself from Biden (since he was being blamed for inflation and high prices), though to be fair that's incredibly hard to do when you're the guy's second in command.

I do wonder why the polls were so misrepresentative though (it almost feels like news outlets were somehow faking them just to artificially keep up the suspense). So, I guess we really should have been anxiously awaiting this moment from the very beginning of Biden's term.

Nate Silver accused many pollsters of herding:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-mor ... wing-state

I did anticipate Trump would run again, but his chances didn't seem that good to me until earlier this year.

And if Trump is going to fuck us, that would be something that had been predetermined as well. It's hard to say right now whether or not he is going to ban abortion or sanction Russia's attack on Ukraine, but if he does end up doing so, we'll know at that point that this was his goal all along, with a system granting him the power to do so, and so these things were also bound to happen. Not that this perspective helps much with the actual outcomes, but I personally find it does help take just a bit of the edge off when they do end up happening -- it's less like we've been suddenly thrust into a dystopian timeline, and more that we're just following the certain course of things, with its ups and downs.

The only person who knows what Trump will do is Trump himself. VERY optimistically it will be a do nothing term since he just wanted to become President to avoid jailtime and he's just going to spend his presidency playing golf.

Anyways, if he does try anything too crazy, I hope that the American people will come to their senses and actually follow through with an impeachment. I suppose that is all that we can really hope for.

Unfortunately the populace doesn't have much power on that front. They could hypothetically call their representatives and tell them to impeach Trump, but Republicans have a blind dedication to party loyalty, so no matter how damning the evidence is if he commits a crime, he'll still get off scot-free.

Giving up territory to Russia sets up a very bad precedent, and just slightly delays the inevitable IMO. I don't think this war is about land, or even much about Ukraine, for that matter. I think it's about an autocratic leader getting bored with the peaceful status quo and wanting to have a bit of fun and create some kind of story for himself in his final years. I don't think there's really any point talking about peace while Putin is still in power. He wants war. He probably doesn't even care that much about Russia's future, and has long ago come to terms with the fact that his country is doomed (in large part because of him).

I always thought Putin initiated this war because of his own hubris and because he wanted to cement his legacy, and thought he'd get the invasion done within a week. Apparently Biden is trying to convince Trump to side with Ukraine, but we'll see if he actually follow through on that.